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Analysis of Heat and Cold Waves Indices

Bayat, Soroush | 2023

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 56753 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Moghim, Sanaz
  7. Abstract:
  8. Heat waves and cold waves are among the most important extreme weather events, which could directly affect human health. The heat wave and cold wave are defined as a period of consecutive days (usually at least 3 days) when hot or cold air persists over a region. However, there is no universal definition of these two phenomena in different scientific references, and the available definitions differ depending on the type of temperature index, the minimum required duration, and the defined threshold temperature. This research aims to examine the main indices of heat waves and cold waves and analyze them in 6 major cities: Tehran, London, Madrid, New York, Shanghai, and Vancouver which have consistently been exposed to severe heat and cold waves in the past decades. Various characteristics of heat and cold waves such as frequency, average temperature, duration, intensity, and average intensity are assessed based on different definitions of these phenomena using a general circulation model (GCM) under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) in a past time period (1990-2000) and a future time period (2030-2040). In general, the results of this research indicate that following the rising temperature due to global warming, in all cities most heat wave indices will show an increasing trend, and most cold wave indices will show a decreasing trend compared to the historical period in the future decade. Furthermore, a vulnerability index for heat waves and cold waves is developed, which relatively indicates the extent to which each city is exposed to consequences caused by these two phenomena. The developed index shows that in the near future, Tehran, London, and Madrid will relatively face the greatest threats in terms of heat waves, and Vancouver and Tehran will relatively confront the greatest threats in terms of cold waves. The final outcome of this research is to determine the trend of changes in heat and cold wave indices based on different definitions in various scenarios. Accordingly, depending on the objectives of future studies, a suitable definition for heat waves and cold waves could be suggested for different sectors such as public health, water resource management, agriculture, energy supply, and environmental protection. Additionally, considering the negative effects and adverse consequences of heat waves and cold waves on humans and the environment, developing adaptation strategies and warning systems to reduce mortality caused by heat and cold waves requires a comprehensive examination and comparison of various indices of these two phenomena, which this research attempts to achieve this aim
  9. Keywords:
  10. Heat Wave and Cold Spells ; General Circulation Model (GCM) ; Climate Change ; Extreme Weather Events ; Extreme Waves ; Environment

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