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Probabilistic Modeling of the Process of Seismic Retrofitting of Buildings to Estimate Operation Time and Cost

Mahdavi Hezaveh, Mohadeseh | 2024

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 57304 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Hajkazem Kashani, Hamed
  7. Abstract:
  8. The goal of this research is the probabilistic estimation of time and cost of the process of seismic retrofitting of structural elements of buildings. In the past, many models have been proposed for estimating the cost of retrofitting buildings, especially masonry buildings. Most of these models have been developed using data from a limited number of retrofitting projects and employing methods such as fitting or regression. A review of the technical literature shows that previous research has not modeled the execution of building retrofitting operations and their complexities, which significantly affect the cost of these projects. Furthermore, the duration of building retrofitting operations has not been estimated in these studies. However, in addition to the cost of retrofitting projects, the duration of these projects also has a significant impact on the planning and decision-making of stakeholders. Designers, contractors, and clients of retrofitting projects need models that, by simulating retrofitting operations, provide not only a suitable perspective on the execution process but also a reasonable estimate of its time and cost. These models should consider the uncertainties and constraints faced by buildings undergoing retrofitting with specific characteristics such as the type of building. In this research, various building typologies in Iran will be initially investigated and identified. The aim is to identify the most prevalent building types in the country and those that, due to their higher vulnerability, pose a threat to society in the face of potential future earthquakes. Empirical data and statistics will be used for this purpose. Subsequently, with the aid of technical literature and expert opinions, strategies for improving performance and the retrofitting process of selected building types will be determined. Following this, by examining domestic price lists and foreign data sources, as well as consulting with experts and contractors in this field, the time and cost of each phase of the operation will be estimated. The collected data will provide a suitable framework for comparing costs across different platforms. Subsequently, a simulation model of the retrofitting process will be developed with the help of expert opinions, and it will be used to probabilistically estimate the time and cost of the operation. This model can also provide an economic assessment of the operation by identifying the factors affecting the cost and optimizing them. The methodology designed for this research is a replicable model that can be used to generate simulation models for the seismic retrofitting process of other types of structures in other geographic locations
  9. Keywords:
  10. Seismic Retrofit ; Cost Estimation ; Earthquake Resistance ; Build Time Estimation ; Probabilistic Simulation ; Buildings Structural Elements

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