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Global Estimates of Manure and Synthetic Fertilizer Phosphorus Loss in Runoff and the Quantification of Data Uncertainities
Golkar Torghabeh, Mohammad Kian | 2024
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- Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
- Language: Farsi
- Document No: 57390 (09)
- University: Sharif University of Technology
- Department: Civil Engineering
- Advisor(s): Sheikholeslami, Razi
- Abstract:
- The increasing rate of population and agricultural development over the past few decades has led to a significant rise in the pollution of surface and groundwater. The application of animal and synthetic fertilizers containing phosphorus, which increases the levels of this element in the soil, can be considered one of the factors endangering the environment, especially the quality of surface waters. The transport of phosphorus, which is one of the pollutants in agricultural runoff, can lead to the degradation of aquatic ecosystems and reduce the quality and usability of water resources. Accordingly, various numerical models have been developed to simulate phosphorus loss from the soil. They lead to proper management of the phosphorus management to achieve more optimal conditions. On the other hand, simulations of phosphorus loss in surface runoff in different models are often carried out by ignoring the uncertainties present in input data (such as precipitation, runoff, fertilizer usage, etc.). It can be expected that ignoring these uncertainties, especially on large scales, makes it impossible to achieve reliable results. To address this issue, the main objective of this study is to calculate the amount of phosphorus loss from the soil for two sources—animal and chemical fertilizers—in surface runoff, while considering various sources of uncertainty in input data on a global scale. In this study, a simple data-driven model is used to quantify the amount of phosphorus loss from the soil and its transport through surface runoff in 520 major river basins globally. 9 precipitation data products, 4 runoff data products and 3 phosphorus fertilizer and manure data products have been used in this study. The results of this research show that the uncertainty arising from the input data of this model in both manure and synthetic fertilizer scenarios indicate high values in many river basins, which itself reflects the significant discrepancies among the input data values of this model. Therefore, there is an urgent need to improve data quality and understand the nature of model-based estimates
- Keywords:
- Water Quality ; Runoff ; Uncertainty Analysis ; Phosphorus Pollution ; Phosphorus Chemical Removal ; Manure ; Synthetic Phosphorus Fertilizer ; Water Pollution
