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Self-Organized Criticality on Spreading of Cooperative Diseases

Rasouli Mehrabani, Mahdi | 2024

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 58010 (04)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Physics
  6. Advisor(s): Moghimi Araghi, Saman
  7. Abstract:
  8. The simultaneous outbreak of multiple diseases within complex human societies, especially under synergistic interactions, poses significant challenges in statistical physics and dynamic system modeling. This thesis investigates self-organized criticality in models of two cooperating diseases integrated with the forest fire model. The primary objective is to identify and analyze critical features in complex systems influenced by the concurrent spread of multiple diseases with distinct transmission mechanisms. The proposed model extends existing frameworks by incorporating primary disease transmission probabilities p and cooperative transmission probabilities q, as well as the probability of immunity loss r. Additionally, a lightning-like mechanism is introduced to allow the re-initiation of disease spread before complete recovery, thereby enhancing the system's dynamic complexity. The findings demonstrate that the distribution of immune cluster sizes for both diseases follows power-law distributions independent of the control parameters p and ε = r/f. Moreover, significant fluctuations and multiple peaks in the distributions reflect the emergence of self-organized critical behavior in the system. These results suggest that integrating the spread of two cooperating diseases with the forest fire model can lead to novel features such as oscillatory behaviors and multiple peaks in the distribution of cluster sizes. This highlights the importance of considering the system's history and the complex interactions among various factors in disease spread modeling. Future research can further explore the mechanisms behind peak formation and the impact of structural changes in the network on the system's critical behavior
  9. Keywords:
  10. Self Organized Criticality ; Scale Invariance ; Cooerative Co-Infections ; Wildfire ; Dynamic System Analysis ; Statistical Physics

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