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Evaluation of the Optimal Transition Pathway for Achieving the Net-Zero Carbon Energy Supply System in Iran Considering Technology Development Forecasts

Moradi, Fatemeh | 2025

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 58115 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Khajehpour, Hossein
  7. Abstract:
  8. The climate crisis and the role of the energy sector in greenhouse gas emissions highlight the urgent need for a transition to a low-carbon energy supply system. In this study, the OSeMOSYS model was used to optimize emission reduction pathways by implementing various scenarios, including BAU, NZC, SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5. First, the technical parameters of the model, such as investment costs and capacity factors, were estimated using econometric methods to account for technological development. Sensitivity analysis was then conducted on investment and import constraints. The results indicate that the BAU scenario, due to its high reliance on fossil fuels, leads to the highest CO₂ emissions, high economic costs, and energy insecurity. In contrast, the NZC scenario is more cost-effective and gradually phases out high-carbon power plants. The SSP2-1.9 scenario, with stricter emission reduction policies, achieves net-zero carbon by 2045, whereas SSP1-1.9 reaches this goal by 2075. Furthermore, the study underscores the critical role of photovoltaic and nuclear technologies in transitioning to a sustainable energy system. With near-zero carbon emissions and high potential for replacing fossil fuels, these technologies require targeted policies and strategic investments. The findings of this research provide valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in designing effective emission reduction strategies and promoting clean energy development
  9. Keywords:
  10. Climate Change ; Energy Supply Network ; Technology Development ; Regression Analysis ; OseMOSYS Model ; Net-Zero Carbon

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