Loading...

Modeling the Co-Benefits of Climate Change and Health Due to Air Pollution in Energy Systems

Rezazadeh, Ali Akbar | 2025

0 Viewed
  1. Type of Document: Ph.D. Dissertation
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 58305 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Avami, Akram; Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh
  7. Abstract:
  8. This study develops an innovative modeling framework for the integrated assessment of energy systems, environmental impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and human health effects of air pollution. The primary objective is to analyze the co-benefits between GHG emission mitigation and the health benefits resulting from improved air quality for metropolises, moving beyond the conventional economic costs typically evaluated by energy models. For this purpose, a structured linkage is established between downscaling models for temperature, energy demand, energy supply, emissions, air quality, and human health impact assessment. An innovative recurrent ensemble model is designed for temperature downscaling. Results indicate that the average temperature varies by up to 2.86°C (an increase of up to 3°C compared to the base year) across different scenarios for the case study of Tehran, which directly impacts energy demand. Energy demand in the residential, transportation, and industrial sectors is projected using machine learning, agent-based modeling, and energy intensity methods, respectively. The analysis shows an increase in electricity demand in two scenarios, a rise in natural gas demand in one scenario, and increased public transport demand in some scenarios. Subsequently, a linear optimization model is developed to meet future energy demand, capable of determining the optimal technology mix and energy flows under various objective functions, such as minimized total discounted costs, total GHG emissions, health impacts from air pollution, or a combination thereof. The model incorporates constraints for mass and energy balance on a reference energy system diagram, estimation of economic costs, estimation of emissions, health impact assessment, and other logical and operational constraints. In an approach simultaneously targeting cost reduction, GHG mitigation, and health impact reduction, the penetration of electrification technologies increases significantly. The transportation sector gradually shifts towards electric and hybrid vehicles, and electricity generation is supplied by solar power plants. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses on energy carrier and carbon prices are conducted across scenarios to better interpret the results. A bilevel model is developed to determine the minimum carbon price required to compensate for damages to human health. The optimal minimum carbon price is estimated to be in the range of $3 to $8 per ton of COeq. Co-benefit analysis reveals a strong correlation (correlation coefficient of 0.69) between GHG emissions, economic costs, and health effects of air pollution. To estimate emission-to-health-impact conversion factor, a photochemical model is run for December 2017 to predict air quality and assess health impacts. The health consequences of air pollution for that month are estimated to be between 381 and 687 premature deaths. By presenting a comprehensive integrated assessment framework, this research demonstrates that the transition to low-carbon cities is economically justifiable, supported by significant co-benefits including economic opportunities and public health advantages from improved air quality
  9. Keywords:
  10. Integrated Assesment Model ; Air Pollution ; Air Pollution and Climate Change Co-Benefit ; Climate Change ; Carbon Tax ; Human Health ; Integrated Modeling

 Digital Object List

 Bookmark

No TOC