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Study the Impact of User Behavior on Gas Consumption by Agent-Based-Modelling (Case study: District two in Tehran)

Zekri Astaneh, Paria | 2025

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 58366 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Boroushaki, Mehrdad
  7. Abstract:
  8. Since the late 20th century and the emergence of the circular economy, discussions on waste utilization and energy waste reduction have gained attention. The household sector accounts for about 40% of final energy consumption, which must be evaluated from both technological and consumer response perspectives to achieve sustainable development goals. Neglecting either of these aspects would pose challenges for demand-side policymaking. Therefore, in this study, considering the importance of analyzing consumer behavioral dynamics, the key factors influencing their decision-making were first identified through a literature review, and their initial impact weights were determined using structural equations. Subsequently, using agent-based modeling and sensitivity analysis, households’ responses to the penetration of a consumer culture and technology were estimated. Sensitivity analysis results indicate that increasing the media effect (parameter p) and the internal effect (parameter q) enhances the rate of technology adoption and cultural shifts, with their sensitivity coefficients gradually stabilizing. This highlights the crucial role of media policies and social interactions in accelerating the social acceptance of innovations. Furthermore, the relationship between gas prices and the rate of technology adoption and new consumption culture is oscillatory and nonlinear. Consumer responses to price changes vary depending on economic conditions and price thresholds. Typically, price increases lead to lower adoption rates, except at certain points where a reverse effect is observed. In the optimized scenario (increasing the media effect to 0.43, the penetration rate to 0.53, and the gas price to 2777 tomans), gas consumption significantly decreases compared to the default scenario, demonstrating the substantial impact of behavioral and economic parameters such as media influence, social penetration rate, and gas price on improving household consumption behavior
  9. Keywords:
  10. Gas Consumption ; Agent Based Modeling ; Sustainable Development ; Technology Penetration ; Cultural Adoption ; Behavioral Dynamics ; Consumer Behavior

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