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Development and Application of a Model for Assessment of Energy Sector in Middle East and the Role of Iran

Moayed, Mojtaba | 2013

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 45074 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Saboohi, Yadollah
  7. Abstract:
  8. The Middle-East with its enormous fossil fuel resources is considered as one of the most important regions with regard to the future world energy outlook. The region produced more than 32% and 16% of the world oil and gas, respectively, in 2012 and contains more than 48% of proven oil and 43% of proven gas reserves in the world and with 78 years of reserves-to-production ratio (RPR or R/P) has a key role in global energy provision. However, the energy issues in the region are intensifying. For instance, the fossil resources are pushed to the second half of their life time due to massive exploitation which results in change in production processes and raises the need for energy investment, on the other hand the energy consumption and ongoing domestic demand escalation in the middle east countries due to energy resource abundance and energy carriers low prices resulted in resource waste. Investigating a geographical region’s energy supply network needs an analytical and comprehensive instrument which inspects all interrelations of the system components. In this thesis, the Middle-East countries’ energy supply systems with its components (including: energy carriers and their international transportation network among the region, refineries, pipelines, distribution substations, and final consumer sectors like urban, industry, transportation, and exports) were simulated using linear-programming; hence, the area’s energy sector prospect under current trend has been predicted. According to the calculations, the Middle-East primary energy demand average annual growth will be 2% for the next 20 years. In 2030, the energy demand will raise 53% compared to 2009, while the potential energy trading among Middle Eastern countries with respect to supply and resource issues will increase 300% during the same period.The research findings show that under the current situation, the Middle-East can be still a major supplier, and oil exports will increase from the region. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia and Iraq will be the largest oil producers in the area by 2020
  9. Keywords:
  10. Reference Energy System ; Middle East ; Iran ; Energy Supply Model

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