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Pre-crisis Planning in Transportation Networks, Considering Immediate, Short-Run and Long-Run Losses: Case Study of the 2003 Bam Earthquake

Salarpour, Mojtaba | 2016

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 49325 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Poorzahedy, Hossein
  7. Abstract:
  8. Natural disasters take many lives each year and leave many others homeless, thereby occupy governments to restore previous conditions rather than deal with progress. Iran has also a worrisome record of natural disasters, and the unpreparedness of the parties involved turn each of such event into a disaster. The purpose of this study is to estimate more accurately the outcomes of severe earthquakes, and show its effect on the decisions which are made to mitigate them. The losses are classified into three groups of immediate, short-run and long-run, which are then measured by some common quantities. Using the 2003 Bam Earthquake as a reference, these quantities are used to measure the aforementioned losses. We have estimated that the immediate and short-run losses of Bam earthquake amount to at least 2361 billions of Tomans (about $2.85 billions) of 2003. We have applied a previously developed model of earthquake outcome mitigation plan to the same test problem used before, this time with the new information about the outcomes. We have shown that: (a) transportation investment cost has relatively minor effects as compared to investments in retrofitting the deteriorated structures. (b) The latter investment is much more effective than that of emergency response.
  9. Keywords:
  10. Emergency Response ; Loss Estimation ; Multiagent System ; Transportation Networks ; Earthquake Mitigation Plans ; Bam Earthquake

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