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Iran’s Strategies to Access to China’s LNG Markets: Using Game Theory

Ranjgari, Hossein | 2019

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 51888 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Maleki, Abbas
  7. Abstract:
  8. This study will examine the interests of Iran in entering one of the largest and most outreaching LNG markets which is China. In order to examine these interests, understanding China's policy on importing LNG and the competitive environment in this market is necessary. First, the decision theory is used to simulate China's policy on adjusting the import mix during the demand growth period of 2011 to 2017.This provides a simulated picture of its policy on increasing demand for the 2020. Then, the behavior of other LNG exporting countries to China is analyzed using game theory approach. By analyzing the sensitivity of the parameters in which uncertainty exist, it was revealed that Iran's potential in this market would be 1.5 billion cubic meters in 2020, and will be surge to 7.8 billion cubic meters by 2030. As a result, the return on investment for Iran LNG project in this market will be less than 5 years from 2027 onwards. conducting a sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties related to China's LNG demand through pipelines, the political stability of LNG exporting countries to China, and the production of LNG by Iran's rivals in this market, would affect the results 10.5, 24.5, 2.5 and zero percent in 2020 on average, respectively
  9. Keywords:
  10. Game Theory ; China Import ; Liquefied Natural Gas ; Energy Policy ; Iran's Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Export ; Decision Making Theory

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