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The Impact of Climate Change on Iran’s Agricultural Sector

Ziaeian Ghasemzadeh, Negar | 2020

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 53004 (44)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Management and Economics
  6. Advisor(s): Vesal, Mohammad
  7. Abstract:
  8. Agriculture consists a significant share in the economies of developing countries, and since temperatures and precipitation are considered to be the inputs for crop production, climate change has a direct impact on the agricultural sector. In this study, we are investigating the effect of climate change on the production and yield of crops in Iran, and for this purpose, we have used annual changes in temperature, precipitation, production, and yield of crops taking into account the fixed effects of year and district. To do this, we have used the panel data of districts between 1993 and 2015 regarding temperature and precipitation, the area under cultivation, and the amount of crops. Estimates from this study show the short-term effects of changes in temperature on agriculture and include the mechanisms of adaptation chose by farmers in the short term. In the long run, farmers will be able to adapt more or less to climate change. The second report of the National Office of Climate Change in Iran stated that by the end of 2050 the increase in temperature will be 1.4 to 2 degrees and rainfall will decrease by 0.5 percent, these changes will be 1.8 to 4.4 degree for temperature and 0.5 to 1.1 percent decrease in precipitation by the end of 2100. According to these predictions and the results obtained, it is predicted that if the method of adaption chose by farmers, in the long run, does not differ from the short term, by the end of 2050, the production of crops in Iran will decrease between 16.1 to 23 percent. In terms of crop yields, the decline is projected to be between 2.4 and 3.7 percent. In the long run, by the end of the 21st century, production will fall by 21 to 55 percent, and crop yields will decrease between 3.2 and 10.8 percent
  9. Keywords:
  10. Climate Change ; Agriculture ; Iran ; Panel Data ; Weather Change ; Agricultural Products

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