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Modeling of the Flood-induced Failure of Community Infrastructure Systems with Emphasis on Food Supply Chain

Daneshifar, Asma | 2021

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 54431 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Kashani, Hamed
  7. Abstract:
  8. This study provides a probabilistic framework for assessing and quantifying flood damage to infrastructure. This framework models the state of the community's infrastructure after the occurrence of possible floods in five steps. The first step is to model the hazard using a set of models that determine the characteristics of potential floods. The second step is to model and estimate the damage to community buildings and infrastructure. In the third step, infrastructure serviceability is modeled. The infrastructures that are modeled in this study are water distribution network, power network, transportation networks and industrial facilities for processing agricultural products. In the fourth step, the cost and recovery time of the damaged components, which is aimed at restoring the level of the infrastructure to the desired performance level, is estimated. At the last stage, the total economic and social costs imposed by the society are calculated. This study focuses on modeling the damage to the food supply chain. Damage to the food supply chain is quantified in three parts. In the first part, the damage to agricultural products during cultivation and maintenance is calculated. In the second part, the damages to agricultural products due to the unserviceability of infrastructure damaged by floods and in the process of transfer from agricultural land to industrial facilities are included. The third part deals with the damages caused by the loss of products in the processing stage. These damages are due to damage to agricultural industries or disruption of critical infrastructure. the total loss of damages can be used as an index for the vulnerability of supply chain to possible flooding.The proposed framework consists of a chain of models that are often probabilistic. Each model in this chain generates outputs that are used in downstream models by receiving specific inputs from upstream models and other sources. with the simulation engine implemented in MATLAB software, the mentioned models simulate the events after the flood until the end of the recovery phase by sampling using Monte Carlo method. In each instance, from the moment the flood occurs until the end of the community's full recovery, all direct and indirect consequences and damages are converted into costs and accumulate over time. At the end of the sampling analysis, the probability distribution of the total cost of society is obtained. The framework presented in the example is implemented on a virtual test platform including residential buildings, businesses, power grids, water supply networks, transportation networks, agricultural lands and industrial processing facilities. The results of this example indicate that indirect agricultural damage accounts for a significant share of the total damage. The proposed framework can calculate direct economic damage, social damage and indirect agricultural damage probabilistic. It should also be used as a tool to assess the potential flood damage and assess the community's resilience to floods
  9. Keywords:
  10. Natural Disasters ; Food Security ; Interdependent Infrastructure Systems ; Risk ; Community Resilience ; Resilient Supply Chain ; Food Supply Chain

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