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Probabilistic Modeling Framework for Predicting Seismic Failure and Damage of Electrical Substations

Mansouri, Javad | 2020

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 55659 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Haj Kazem Kashani, Hamed; Mahsouli, Mojtaba
  7. Abstract:
  8. The increasing dependence of urban communities on infrastructure highlights the importance of resilience in the event of natural disasters, including earthquakes. Every society is made up of various infrastructures such as water supply, electricity, transportation, hospitals and so on.Every infrastructure to serve the community depends directly or indirectly on the electricity infrastructure.The power supply infrastructure consists of three main systems of electricity generation, transmission and distribution. Power substations, as nodes of the transmission and distribution network, are considered to be very vital nodes that it is important to maintain their serviceability after severe earthquakes. Loss of functionality in power substations after an earthquake can cause interruption across other lifelines.In this research, three main goals were followed. The first objective was to develop seismic fragility models for power substations. Power substations consist of various elements, e.g., lightning arrester, line trap, current transformer (CT), circuit breaker (CB), capacity bank, sectioner, voltage transformer (VT), Bus bar (BB). In this research, fragility curves are developed based on modeling a system of the elements including and limited to CB, CT, VT, BB, and disconnect switch (DS). Each of the aforementioned elements have a unique fragility curve. Fault tree analysis has been used in order to evaluate the functionality of a substation after a seismic hazard has happened. Secondly, the effect of different configurations of elements in a substation on its fragility model has been assessed. Finally, loss models have been developed for each standard substation configuration to be able to evaluate the total loss on the power network imposed by a seismic event. Due to the importance and high value of voltage transformers regarding other elements in a power substation, a substation loss is considered as the sum of voltage transformers loss and other elements loss.



  9. Keywords:
  10. Infrastructure ; Fault Tree ; Loss Model ; Monte Carlo Simulation ; Frailty Model ; Urban Infrastructure ; Infrastructure Resilience

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