Considering the Bullwhip Effect Regarding the Ordering Policy and Demand of Ultimate Customer and Representing Solutions to Reduce the Mentioned Effect

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Safikhani, Alireza | 2011

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Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
Language: Farsi
Document No: 42210 (01)
University: Sharif University of Technology
Department: Industrial Engineering
Advisor(s): Ghasemi, Farhad
Abstract:
Today, with advances in technology and communication equipments, supply chain management plays an important role in different industries. Bullwhip effect is the significant factor which can reduce efficiency of supply chain and increases costs and lead time of services and products to the ultimate customer. In this thesis we have investigated on forecasting method and ordering policy in the bullwhip effect. Basic model based on beer game, moving average, Holt and Brown are 4 models which were studied. Also we defined desired stock and desired stock line which the difference between desired and actual stock and also difference between desired and actual stock line in any period, have influences on our indicated order. We have three ordering policies which in first policy the desired values are constant and in second policy these values take different quantities and elimination of these desired values from model forms the third policy. These models were simulated in the Matlab software and results were analyzed and compared regarding to performance measurement indicators. Ultimately optimal ordering policy and forecasting method and necessary recommendations were presented
Keywords:
Goods Supply Chain Management ; Bullwhip Effect ; Simulation ; Forecasting ; Ordering Policy

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