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Analysis of the Effect of Economic Variables on Effectiveness of Mobile Sources Air Pollutants Emission Control Policies: in the Case of Tehran

Hassani, Amin | 2022

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  1. Type of Document: Ph.D. Dissertation
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 55411 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Maleki, Abbas; Hosseini, Vahid
  7. Abstract:
  8. Passenger cars (PCs) are of particular importance among mobile air pollutants emissions sources due to their population and significant share in air pollutants emissions and gasoline consumption. Moreover, ownership and use intensity of PCs are affected by socio-economic situation. The present study projects the future trends of air pollutants emissions and fuel consumption from PCs in Tehran by 1415 and assesses the effect of economic situation on the emission trends and effectiveness of emission reduction polices. Accordingly, the present study develops an interdisciplinary modeling framework, which combines econometric models with a bottom-up emission estimation model to simulate the stock and composition of the fleet as well as its use-intensity. The study uses various sourecs and methods to compensate for data limitations. Results show that while the stock of PCs grows 71% and reachs 6.1 million by 1415 the emissions of gaseous air pollutants from PCs will be reduced up to 75%. However, PM2.5 emission will surge by 76% 90% of PM2.5 emissions are attributed to non-exhaust emissions. The study shows no significant change in the trends of gaseous air pollutants emissions under economic santions scenarios. This is because the emission degradation associated with slower fleet turnover and lower number of PCs in the stock counterbalance each other in the case of drop in purchasing power of the people. Assessment of emission reduction polices showes that improvement of emission standards has the highest effectiveness in mitigating gaseous air pollutants while PM2.5 emissions are only reduced under fuel price reform scenario, which is a mobility management policy. According to the findings, drop of purchasing power of people because of economic sanctions reduces the effectiveness of technology-based policies while increase the effectiveness of mobility management policies. Stable economic situation results in higher effectiveness of technology-based policie in comarisoon to mobility management policies
  9. Keywords:
  10. Tehran ; Air Pollution ; Passenger Cars ; Sanction ; Futures Studies ; Petrol Engines

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