Sharif Digital Repository

Investors highly value the ability to predict the behavior of the capital market. Over time, various methods have been introduced to forecast the future of this market and anticipate its movements. A novel approach to achieving this is by developing data-driven decision support systems that can assist investors in making informed trading decisions. The opinions of experts play a crucial role in shaping people's perception of the market, which ultimately affects its final behavior. In this study, we have created a decision support system that can help investors by considering the complexities and meaningful relationships between different aspects of the problem. We have developed frameworks... 

Markets are becoming more saturated every day and competition between different businesses is increasing. The importance of managing Customer churn in various businesses has become increasingly important because the cost of attracting a new customer is many times greater than retaining an existing customer. With the development of data mining and its increasing expansion and the other side, the increase of stored information related to various organizations and businesses has accelerated the operations of extracting knowledge from data. Today, businesses are moving towards the use of intelligent knowledge extraction systems, of which Customer churn prediction systems are one of the most... 

According to increasing energy demand in Iran and the world, the role of natural gas as a relatively clean and cost-effective source has received more attention. Given the high share of the residential sector in the country's natural gas consumption, providing a model for forecasting the demand of this sector is of great importance for policy makers and decision makers in this field. In the present study, we employ three popular methods of machine learning, support vector regression, artificial neural network and decision tree to predict the consumption of natural gas in the residential sector in Tehran according to meteorological parameters (including temperature, precipitation and wind... 

Using revenue management in any industry can increase the profit. In aviation industries, due to the huge number of requests and travels for each airline, a revenue management system can lead to a good profit for the airlines. The first step in revenue management system is predicting the demand.In this article two models are developed using time series techniques, based on the information taken from one of the Iranian airlines in Tehran-Mashhad fly route.The first model is developed using ARIMA and seasonal-ARIMA models and the second one is based on the demand and price history, price in the day of prediction and the ARIMA model. The second model which is a combination of price, prior price... 

Some systems exhibit probabilistic and nondeterministic behavior. This behavior arises, for example, due to the use of randomized algorithms or presence of the unreliable components. Probabilistic Activity Network (PAN) is a flexible model for describing such systems. Every PAN is convertible to a Markov decision process. Up to now, there is no model checker which can operate directly on this model. In addition state space explosion arises as an important problem in model checking of real systems. We have developed a software tool called SPTMAN, for model checking of PAN. In this dissertation we are going to present a way for applying partial order reduction on PAN and then we will introduce... 

The use of clean energy sources has become increasingly popular around the world in recent years. One of the most important of these sources is wind energy. Due to the high wind potential in offshore areas than on land, this study uses the integration of multi-criteria decision-making methods and GIS to identify the best areas for developing offshore wind farms in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. Criteria applied in this study are divided into two categories: restrictive criteria, such as recommended transportation routes and anchored restricted areas, and technical criteria, such as wind speed and water depth. After removing the inappropriate areas using restrictive criteria, the... 

Sustainable agricultural development in the country without regard to water supply problems in terms of time and place is not possible. Construction of water storage tanks filled with water and seasonal use in dry seasons in the effective action in the optimal use of water in the climate of (low and irregular rainfall) is. The most important step in the construction of water storage tanks to choose the best point for the construction of the reservoir basin in order to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Chndmyarh different methods to decide the best option for finding a few options from there. Among these methods can be Tapsys two methods (TOPSIS) and hierarchical analysis (AHP) pointed... 

Nowadays, prediction markets and decision markets are among the common methods for predicting future events. There are many studies on these markets and some models are developed for analyzing them. Score rule is a classic method that is used for many years for information elicitation in weather forecasting, economical predictions and predicting sport games’ results. In this thesis, a study on score rules, prediction and decision markets was conducted. These studies resulted in a new model for predicting the value of a variable in future. This model was designed as a proper score rule in its primary form. Then features which were discussed in this new literature were defined, and it was... 

Nanotechnology requires a number of infrastructures for reaching its sustainable development. For each step of its development , various infrastructures should be studied and prepared in advance.In this direction, by introducing and recognizing the priority of Iran Nanotechnology R&D indexes ,the present research is going to propose an effective help. In this case, after studying the related literature and gathering the needed data , 27 indexes were recognized. Then , the indexes were divided in 7 criteria.In order to find the priority of the applied indexes , Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making (FMCDM) was applied. As the weighting of 7 criteria had been found by FANP , the... 

The ”Secretary Problem” is an easy model of online decision making unedr uncertainty, in which a small company intends to hire a new employee. It interviews with the applicants and after each interview, it should make a decision based on the information of the interviewees seen so for and without any knowledge of further applicants. The goal is to design a strategy of decision making with which the probability of choosing the best one is maximized.The secretary problem is not restricted to the issue of hiring an employee. It is advantageous in various areas such as economy,management, marriage and etc. The span of its utility makes it an intriguing problem that attracts the attention of many... 

During recent years a variety of decision making models for project selecting and priorities have been developed. Most of these models used quantitative indicators for projects evaluating and focused on financial and economic indicators. In this project, a decision support system for project portfolio management in construction industry has been developed. The most important feature of this model that distinct it from others is its relationship with the organization's strategies. On one hand, this model focuses on the organization to ensuring that the projects selected for investment, meet the portfolio strategy and on the other hand, it focuses on project management to delivering projects... 

Public projects are those projects that are run by public financial resources such as tax or other national governmental incomes. Selection of these projects is relatively difficult due to their importance, long life-time, and high costs. In most models developed in previous studies to select public projects, financial matters and risks are the only factors which were considered. However, the public projects should naturally be selected in a way that citizens’ benefits are maximized (in both short- and long-term) and citizens’ living level increases. In other words, public projects should be selected to increase citizens’ satisfaction. In this thesis, a model for public projects is presented... 

Decision Tree is used to analyze situations with sequential decisions. Applying Decision tree method in such situations leads to identifying the best sequence of decisions. On the other hand, System Dynamics is a powerful method to gain useful insight into situations of complexity, interconnections, feedback loops nonlinearities and time delays. System Dynamics is able to model complexities and interconnections of situations and provide precise understanding about it. Therefore, combination of these two methods could be very effective in analysis of problems that firstly, comprise of sequential decisions with multiple uncertainty and secondly, illustrate complex behavior. Supply chain is one... 

Mathematical modeling and computer simulation are powerful tools to help cancer research because they provide a good insight of cancer progression and an efficient framework to test biological hypothesis. Most of the previous studies ignored many intracellular communication between tumor cells. Gap junction is one of the interaction ways between tumor cells which plays a crucial role in cancer progression. In the first phase of this thesis, a model of intracellular communication through gap junction using evolutionary game theory scoring is proposed. In the second phase of this thesis, cancer is modeled by Markov decision process (MDP). Given that considering nutrient level constant is one... 

Different causes in the exploration, production and transport of oil in the marine environment result in oil spill events. Since elimination of the probability of occurrence of spills is not possible, it is important to have a plan to control the risk of oil spills by optimal response. In this research, a general stucture is presented for the DSS required for oil spill response planning. This system can be used for evaluation of the effectiveness of response drills, and risk-based ranking of receptor areas and spill sources. Ranking based on risk is realized through probabilistic or stochastic risk assessment. The applicability of the proposed system is examined in differnet case studies in... 

The Yazd province is located in the dry and desert region of Iran and is constantly exposed to strong winds and dust storms due to its climatic conditions and geographical location. The first objective of this thesis is to assess the dust storm events that have occurred in Yazd province in order to identify their source and pathways of transport during the long-term period of 2012-2019. A novel multi-criteria framework for identifying the sources of dust storms and dust events in Yazd province has been presented using the HYSPLIT model. In this framework, the numerical results, along with geographical features, observational and satellite data, were used as criteria in the multi-criteria... 

Due to the explosive growth of mobile data traffic and growth of the number of access points (APs), Wi-Fi data offloading is a promising solution to cope with the data explosion. In delayed WiFi offloading, mobile users (MUs) can intentionally bear some delay in order to increase the chance of offloading and remarkably improve offloading ratio. In this thesis, we propose a new decision method for delayed offloading in a network comprised of a base station (BS), some non-overlapping WLANs, and some MUs. We take into account the residual service time and the congestion level in WLAN as the key parameters for decision making in offloading process. Because these parameters are time-varying and... 

Supported by a rich literature in psychology and neuroscience, the dual-process theory of decision making assumes that individuals’ decisions are made through arbitration between habitual and goal-directed processes within their minds. Whereas the goal-directed system makes decisions after deliberating all positive and negative consequences of each feasible choice, the habitual system make choices based on the habits formed in previous experiences. Although the decisions of the goal-directed system are always more optimal that those of the habitual system, but due to that fact that the goal-directed system is slow, effortful and time-consuming, it is sometimes more efficient to make... 

In many biological populations, information about environmental conditions is acquired collectively, through information sharing among individuals, by exchanging signals. In order to achieve a better understanding of such systems, using methods borrowed from statistical physics, we introduce two mathematical models. First, a collective decision making model, for a community of individuals residing on a communication network, who live in an uncertain environment, in which individuals try to collectively find the environmental state. In the second model, a collective movement model, we consider a population of collectively moving individuals, in which individuals try to collectively find and... 

How the human nervous system works is one of the most important topics in science and in this topic providing a model of it is scientists' main concern. The human brain that has been formed from a large number of nerve cells lets it do complex computations. The structure of cognition, memorizing and processing which are some of human features are being studied in many fields of science named "brain and cognitive science".
In this study, we will point to modeling of one of the human cognitive phenomena (decision making in problem solving). In this modeling, we aim to connect the microscopic and macroscopic levels of the nervous system to each other.
First, we will give an introduction...