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An Investigation of a Fuzzy Transformation of Variables on the Robustness of Choice Models

Sherafatipour, Saeid | 2009

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 39796 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Pourzahedi, Hosein
  7. Abstract:
  8. Estimation of demand, for example, for transportation is an important issue for the planning and programming of various systems. Thus, enhancing the predictability power of such models is of high value. Demand stems from choices of individuals, and choice is subject to uncertainty and fuzziness. Uncertainty comes from many factors including incomplete information of decision-maker, and fuzziness comes from many other factors including personal perception regarding the value of the variables affecting choice. This study tries to introduce a new approach in building choice models, in which variables are transformed into another variable by the help of a global wisdom. This wisdom shows the degree of effectiveness of various values of the variables. Since this transformation of variable values is in accordance with a construction of fuzzy variable, this model building approach is called a fuzzy-random choice calibration. Two real cases have been considered in Tele-working and urban mode choice, for which the best random choice model of logit type have been compared with their fuzzy-random counter parts. The results show appreciable improvement in the performance of the fuzzy-random model over the respective random choice one.

  9. Keywords:
  10. Choice Model ; Logit Model ; Utility Function ; Telecommuting ; Fuzzy Set Theory

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