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Optimum Water Allocation Modeling at Basin Scale by Integration of Waterbasin Hydrologic and Socio-economic Properties and Their Uncertainties

Karimi, Akbar | 2010

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  1. Type of Document: Ph.D. Dissertation
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 41586 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Ardakanian, Reza
  7. Abstract:
  8. Most of the recent hydro-system researches lent themselves to integrated modeling of interactions between agricultural water demand and hydro-system operation for better agricultural water demand management. Large share of water consumption by agriculture sector and general acceptance of integrated water supply and demand management by water sector decision makers highlighted this approach in hydro-systems analysis. This approach in modeling helps to achieve a better management strategy for agricultural water demand and supply with the least reduction in agri-sector economic indices, while supplying industry, domestic and environmental target demands. However, agriculture, industry and domestic water demands can go through meaningful changes by socio-economic interactions, and through these changes they influence water availability in downstream regions. Therefore, hydro-system operation modeling if considers its interaction with agriculture, industry and domestic demands (and not just agricultural demand) makes it possible to obtain more acceptable decisions from different stakeholders’ point of view.In this research to study integrated water supply and demand management in domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors a water allocation model that uses integrated modeling of water supply and demand is developed. By this model, hydrologic and socio-economic impacts of different water supply and demand policies can be assessed, optimized and used for optimum water allocation shares, hydro-system operation and water demands growth pattern. This non-linear and long-term mathematical model optimizes the system operation under hydrologic and socio-economic uncertainty, while considering interactions between water supply, agriculture and industry water demands. The model maximizes utility function defined by dimensionless weighted sum of production, net return and employment of different stakeholders, as their socio-economic indices, at the basin level for the whole time horizon. Therefore water allocation share values and water demands growth pattern are determined with the most acceptability among stakeholders.
    This model is used for the assessment of water transfer projects impact in Zayandehrud waterbasin on production, employment and net return of agriculture and industry sectors as well as net return of water supplier and domestic water distributor within a 20 year planning horizon. Influence of 300 MCM transfer from Kuhrang Tunnel 3, 80 MCM and 45 MCM transfer to Yazd and Kashan from the Zayandehrud waterbasin, on 2% yearly growth of agriculture and industrial production is studied. Optimization results show that even with control of 150 MCM spring flows in the waterbasin, agriculture sector can not grow at all without at least a 25% improvement in irrigation efficiency. However, 2% growth for industry production can be guaranteed in most conditions. It is notable that water transfer costs equal water supply net returns in the case of controlling springs flow, while it falls to half of transfer costs in drought periods, like; 25% reduction in rainfall during 20 years of analysis.

  9. Keywords:
  10. Water Allocation ; Optimization ; Socio-Economic Properties ; Water Supply and Demand Management ; Hydro-System

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