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Application of Electricity Market Dynamics to Generation Capacity Expansion Planning in Restructured Power System

Hasani Marzooni, Masoud | 2011

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  1. Type of Document: Ph.D. Dissertation
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 42554 (05)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Electrical Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Hosseini, Hamid
  7. Abstract:
  8. In this thesis, a dynamic decision model based on the system dynamics concept is proposed for the generation capacity expansion planning of restructured power systems. In the market viewpoint framework, both the market players' behaviors and the regulatory rules are considered in the model. Short-term generation dispatch and long-term generation capacity expansion are modeled based on the technical and economical relationships in the electricity market. The proposed model contains ten different modules in order to model the energy market, the regulated incentive mechanisms, profitability assessment of investors, investment decision and capacity expansion. The modules are connected using feedback loops. The expectations of energy market price and incentives in the capacity mechanisms are used for profitability criterion and investment decision in generation capacity expansion in a dynamic framework of the both competitive and oligopolistic structures of electricity market.
    Four contributions are introduced in the proposed system dynamics model. Firstly, both the conventional generation technologies (which are price dispatched) and the renewable generation technologies (which are stochastically dispatched) are included simultaneously in the energy market. Secondly, different capacity mechanisms are considered beside the energy market in order to encourage the investors for conventional generation capacity investment. Thirdly, the tradable green certificate market is modeled dynamically beside the energy market as an incentive for generation and investment of renewable generation technologies. Finally, the oligopoly structure of energy market is modeled in a dynamic framework and the related effects on the generation capacity investments are investigated. The proposed model has been implemented in some real electricity market. Different decisions of market players and different policies and regulatory rules in planning time horizon have been analyzed based on the time simulation modeling. Besides, the long-term impacts of oligopolistic nature of energy market on the capacity expansion are assessed. Such a decision model enables both the generation firms and the regulators gaining perfect insights into the possible consequences of different decisions they make under different policies and market conditions
  9. Keywords:
  10. System Dynamic ; Generation Capacity Expansion Planning ; Capacity Mechanisms ; Capacity Payment ; Capacity Market

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