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Climate Change Impact Assessment on Hydropower & Adaptive Management, Case Study: Karkheh River Basin

Jamali, Saeed | 2012

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  1. Type of Document: Ph.D. Dissertation
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 43189 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Abrishamchi, Ahmad
  7. Abstract:
  8. Today climate change impacts are increasingly visible through their effects on hydrology and water resources. So it is encouraging to adaptive planning and to reduce unfavorable impacts. Until now, they have been accomplished several studies on climate change impacts across the world. One of these impacts is runoff reduction to reservoirs of hydropower dams. Depending on hydrologic conditions, hydropower provides 16 percent of world electricity and 13 percent of national electricity demand. Hydroelectric power’s low cost, near-zero pollution emissions, and ability to quickly respond to peak loads make it a valuable renewable energy source.Given the important role of hydropower in peak electricity management, Iran is actively pursuing development of more hydropower resources by construction of large dams. Nonetheless, climate change is expected to affect the future productivity of hydropower by influencing the hydrologic cycle and different climate variables.This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on the hydropower systems in the Karkheh River Basin —the third river basin in Iran in terms of potential for hydroelectricity generation and also adaptive planning and management to reduce unfavorable impacts.
    In this study, initially, the results of two GCMs (CGCM3T47 and HadCM3) under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) (A1B, A2, and B1) are used. Those outputs are then downscaled by a regression-based model (ASD). Next, downscaled data are used in a hydrological model (IHACRES). Then, by developing a water resources model (MODSIM), climate change impact on hydropower was investigated. After it, a hybrid simulation-optimization model was developed to maximize hydropower generation across basin under different climate change scenarios through optimum rule curves for each reservoir. At the last part, another hybrid simulation-optimization model was developed to redesign dams and hydropower which under study. Its decision variables were normal water level, minimum operation level and installation capacity of each under study dams and hydropowers.
    Results indicate that hydropower reduction in first horizon is negligible. But it will be more serious in the second and third horizons.
    Also, results show that adaptive management through changing rule curves and adaptive planning through redesign under study dams and hydropowers will mitigate unfavorable impacts considerably
  9. Keywords:
  10. Climate Change ; Scenario Analysis ; Water Planning Model ; Hydropower Generation ; Karkheh Dam River Basin ; Adaptive Operation ; Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

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