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Developing An Integrated System Dynamics - Genetic Algorithm Model: Application to Rainfall-Runoff Modelling

Shafiee Jood, Majid | 2012

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 43212 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Abrishamchi, Ahmad
  7. Abstract:
  8. Continuous increase in population which leads to increase in water demand, negative ecological and environmental impacts of dam constructions for supplying water, surface and groundwater pollution and climate change impacts on water cycle are among the major reasons that has made water supply into a crisis specifically in the past two decades. This issue is highlighted in regions with arid or semi-arid climatic conditions. Water demand is the key stimulus in the complex and dynamic water resources system which causes interaction among economical, social and environmental sub systems. These issues together with political challenges led to the introduction of integrated water resources management concept. Hence, developing a model which is capable of simulating and predicting the behavior of such complex and dynamic system has always engaged attention for research in this field. System Dynamics is a simulation approach for complex systems which performs modeling based on discovering and implementing feedbacks in the system. Applying this approach to water resources systems studies makes it possible to simulate all other sub systems relating to water resources systems in one integrated model and assess the impacts of variables in each sub system on water resources. Moreover, this approach helps quality variables to be considered in the model. Despite the power of this approach in simulation, there has always been a need in a joint optimization model for calibration of the main model and selection of best scenarios. In this study, integration of system dynamics and genetic algorithm in the form of integrated GA-SD model has been used for optimization of SD-based models. The developed model is composed of a Real-Coded GA in C++ programming language and a SD-based model in Vensim software while DLL protocol is used to integrate the two models. Then, the proposed approach has been used in rainfall-runoff modelling in one sub catchment of Karkheh River basin. The results of implementing the integrated GA-SD model in rainfall-runoff model calibration shows acceptable performance of the model in simulating the observed hydrograph. Furthermore, using multi-objective calibration can improve the performance of the model. Then, two calibrated models were examined in two validation periods. This study proves the capability of integrated GA-SD model in rainfall-modelling and proposes further uses of the model in water resources studies
  9. Keywords:
  10. System Dynamic ; Genetic Algorithm ; Calibration ; Rainfall-Runoff Modeling ; Integrated Genetic Algorithm-System Dynamics (GA-SD)Model

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