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Regional Water Resources Management Using System Dynamics Approach, Case Study: Karaj Area

Tavakoli, Saman | 2012

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 43268 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Abrishamchi, Ahmad
  7. Abstract:
  8. Incline in the population and civilization, development of agriculture, and expansion of industries, in addition to limitations on surface and groundwater resources necessitate the existence of correct and efficient planning of management and utilization of water resources. Prediction of behavioral models of changes in water resources systems, influenced by utilizing strategies, absolutely helps stakeholders for conservative development of these resources. System dynamics is an object oriented method that is based on system's feedback. Not only it gives real description of complex systems, but also it provides the ability to influence effectively in development of the model for the user. The most significant characteristics of this simulation method are the increasing of model developing speed, the ability to group development of the model, the effective interaction with results, and the inclining of user's confidence in the model as a result of his corporation in the process. The ease of changing the model and doing sensitivity analysis, also make this method more appealing to users than any other analysis methods. In this research, in accordance to climate change, a system dynamics model of Karaj area- including dam, groundwater, domestic, agriculture, industry demands, and demographic characteristics- are developed. The model's validation is evaluated through various tests such as sensitivity analysis, extreme conditions, and comparison with reference modes. This model predicts future trends, assuming that present trends reoccurred, and eventually evaluates the efficiency of different scenarios such as increasing agriculture efficiency, transferring interbasin water, controlling the demand, controlling the population, using recycled wastewaters for agricultural irrigation, and combination of them, and chooses as the best scenario by weighting to current priorities in the area. Finally, the result of conjunctive management of surface and groundwater is examined. This research asserts that because of population increase and current resources' limitations, the ongoing scenarios in water resources management of Karaj area caused a wider gap between water supply and demand, therefore none of the managerial scenarios is able to resolve the water supply problem alone and the best solution is implementing a combination of them.



  9. Keywords:
  10. Simulation ; System Dynamic ; Groundwater ; Urban Water Demand ; Scenario Analysis ; Climate Change ; Water Resources Management ; Integrated Management

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