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Quantitative Rsk Assessment and Accident Frequency Determination Based on Fuzzy Logic with Shazand Oil Refinery Accident Case Study

Javidi, Majid | 2013

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 45633 (06)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Chemical and Petroleum Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Rashtchian, Davoud
  7. Abstract:
  8. Today, Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) has become an efficient tool in decision making for safety and process experts. To assess the risk of any accident scenario, it is necessary that the probability of that event be determined in addition to estimating the probable consequences. Event tree and fault tree analysis are known to be the standard tools for calculating the frequency of incident outcomes.
    In this research, a new method based on Markov chin and Fuzzy theory is presented to estimate the occurrence probability of events. A one of important parameter which has sufficient effect on probability of incident frequency, is inspection and maintenance interval. in this research this parameter defined as a useful and practical index. The main advantage of the proposed Fuzzy model is that it has high flexibility in applying an expert opinion in forming effective dependencies in the models and is consistence with safety problem nature. Furthermore in this research corrosion as the main mechanism of failure caused operating and design conditions be effective in the predicted outcome event. At the end, Shazand oil refinery accident in 1998 used as the case study and model results are compared with this accident.
  9. Keywords:
  10. Fuzzy Logic ; Markov Chain ; Corrosion ; Quantitative Risk Analysis ; Event Tree ; Shazand Arak Refinery

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