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Rural Activity-Travel Pattern Modeling; Demand Forecasting, Policy Evaluating

Dashtestaninejad, Hossein | 2014

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  1. Type of Document: Ph.D. Dissertation
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 48164 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Vaziri, Manouchehr
  7. Abstract:
  8. Transportation, as a prerequisite of sustainable development of rural areas, should be considered as a high priority step in planning. This issue needs even more attention in developing countries such as Iran as significant part of population in these countries resides in rural areas. However, still little is known about the activity and travel characteristics of rural residents. This study focuses on developing comprehensive framework to model disaggregate travel demand of rural residents based on daily activity-travel pattern, application of this framework in estimating the transportation decisions and measuring the effectiveness of policies related to improving rural transportation modes. In this regard, firstly, daily activity-travel pattern was decomposed to five hierarchical decision steps including: (a) primary activity-location pattern, (b) primary time of day-mode, (c) secondary activity-location, (d) secondary time of day and (e) secondary mode. Then, he decisions in each step and the relations between them were estimated using logit models. After modeling activity-travel pattern, modeling of policy effectiveness was held. In this step, each individual depends on activity type, activity location and his/her gender, was faced different scenarios. These scenarios include present modes and proposed modes. The proposed policies were including carpool, out-of village new minibus transit service, rental car, school bus, subsidized motorcycle and bicycle and in-village transit service. An interview place-based questionnaire was designed and data about activity-travel characteristics of rural residents in four villages of Esfahan province was collected. In total, 663 respondents in two types of villages, near to city and far from it, were used for modeling daily activity-travel pattern. The proposed framework and results emphasized on the relations between hierarchical decisions in daily activity-travel patterns. The type of village and activity location choice had strong effect on the other decisions in daily activity-travel pattern. According to individuals’ responses to proposed policies, there is a significant tendency to change the present modes to new proposed modes. This tendency is more significant for individuals who perform activity out-of-village compared to individuals performing in-village activities. For out-of-village activities, more than 60% of people changed their present modes while for in-village activities this share was reduced to about 50%. Evaluating the marginal effect of policies showed that individuals who perform shopping-service activities, in-village and out of it, were more sensitive to change of policies’ attributes
  9. Keywords:
  10. Rural Transport ; Activity-Based Demand Modeling ; Transportation Planning ; Daily Activity Pattern ; Logit Model ; Activity-Travel Pattern ; Disaggrigate Travel Demand Estimation ; Lmproving Rural Travel Modes Policies

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