Future Studies of Sustainability Indicators of Iranian Supply Energy System

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Nejatian, Mohammad Ebrahim | 2016

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Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
Language: Farsi
Document No: 48267 (46)
University: Sharif University of Technology
Department: Energy Engineering
Advisor(s): Maleki, Abbas
Abstract:
According to current trend of energy production and consumption in the world, economic problems in various countries and too many eco-system disorders in which created by an unsustainable trend in development, recently, the concept of “sustainability” and in the following “sustainable development” has been featured by scientists, researchers and policy makers in different scientific disciplines specially energy system engineering. Therefore exact recognition of unsustainability of local and global energy supply and demand system is very essential. In this research after selection of five energy indicators for sustainable development by Delphi and MCDM methods, future perspective of Iranian supply energy system has analyzed by indicators by means of scenario planning method. At the end, four scenario has been developed because of differences in elite’s suggestion for two indicators future trends. 4th scenario has the most similarity to sustainability goals. Therefor business as usual scenario is deferent from sustainability goals, which goals final mark for sustainable scenario is 0.515 and business as usual scenario is 0.419
Keywords:
Energy Supply Model ; Development ; Indicators ; Stabilizable ; Scenario Analysis ; Stability Index

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