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Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Allocation of Shared Water Resources (Case Study: Lake Urmia Basin, Zarineh Rud)

Karimi, Fatemeh | 2015

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 48415 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Abrishamchi, Ahmad
  7. Abstract:
  8. Nowadays, climate change is one of most important environmental challenges in all over the world. In addition to climate change, population growth, increase in water demand, which surpasses available resources so that the water system cannot meet the demands, and the subsequent growth in the development of water resources plans make watershed management become a challenging issue . In the last decade, due to significant reduction of precipitation, continuous increase in water development plans and utilization of too much water for agricultural and other uses, water inflow to the lake Urmia has reduced. Furthermore, Urmia lake have a strategic location which flows in three provinces of East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan. So that its critical situation causes many conflicts. Zarinehrud is the largest sub-basin of the Urmia basin that encompasses water supply of three provinces and makes 40% of inflow to Lake Urmia. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change on the water resources management and allocation of Zarinehrud basin in close future and compare the results with the past period. For assessment the impacts of climate change on Zarinehrud basin in the period 2011-2030, output of general circulation climate model, HADCM3, under scenarios A2, B1, A1B have been used. According to large scale output of GCMs model, LARS-WG stochastic model should be employed to downscale it into regional scale. The results indicate an overall increase in temperature and precipitation in the basin. In each of these scenarios runoff is simulated in the coming period of climate change by using artificial neural networks. Simulation of basin with WEAP model shows a decrease in reliability indicators, and more importantly in full development of water plans and climate change period, the entrance inflow to lake reduce about 50% in comparison to the same conditions in the past. Finally, three methods of bankruptcy approach (proportional, constrainted to equal losses, constrainted to equal awards) have been utilized, in order to extract a pattern for water allocation conflicts between the provinces of East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan, in normal and drought years and climate change period, by taking occount Zarinehrud counribition in the ecological lake basin right.results show that Pro rule is better allocation pattern in dry years ,and CEA rule in climate change period and normal years
  9. Keywords:
  10. Water Allocation ; Climate Change ; Artificial Neural Network ; Weap Software ; Bankruptcy ; Lake Urmia Watershed

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