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Reliability Analysis of Concrete Gravity Dam with Foundation's Parameters Uncertainty Based on Nonlinear Finite Element Model

Farivar, Milad | 2015

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 48819 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Ghaemian, Mohsen; Toufigh, Vahab
  7. Abstract:
  8. In this study reliability and sensitivity analysis of the parameters of a concrete gravity dam have been proposed regarding to their probabilistic behavior. At first, the uncertainty of concrete fracture energy (GF), Foundation’s elasticity modulus (E_f), and the Peak ground acceleration (PGA) are considered according to their probability density function (pdf). The uncertainty sources are inserted in the model using the Latin Hyper Cube Sampling method (LHS) in order to do reliability analysis of the model. Monte Carlo method is one of the most popular methods for reliability analysis of numerical models. Taking this method in uncertainty analysis would evaluate the effects of the inputs on the outputs. After that, it is the time to determine the contribution of the parameters using the sensitivity analysis of each. The sensitivity of each parameter is calculated using the analyzes which are dimensionless and based on the calculation of delta factor. In this thesis the Pine Flat dam is modeled in ABAQUS and MATLAB is used to perform Monte Carlo analysis in order to assess the validation of the model according to the previous valid models. Multi-loop Monte Carlo method is one of the most popular methods to analyze the sensitivity of the parameters of numerical models. The results have shown that according to the appropriate probability density function (pdf) which is used for each parameter, the delta factor could have various results. The most effective parameters in dam failure probability are concrete fracture energy, Peak ground acceleration , and foundation’s elasticity modulus. Having a close study on these parameters could have good effects on descending uncertainty of the sampling parameters
  9. Keywords:
  10. Concrete Gravity Dam ; Sensitivity Analysis ; Uncertainty ; Reliability ; Nonlinear Finite Element Method ; Foundation Parameters

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