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Time-variant Seismic Risk Analysis of Transportation Networks Considering Economic and Socioeconomic Impacts

Yazdi-Samadi, Mohammad Reza | 2016

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: English
  3. Document No: 49069 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Mahsuli, Mojtaba; Samimi, Amir
  7. Abstract:
  8. This thesis targets the multidisciplinary area of time-variant seismic risk analysis of transportation networks. For this purpose, a new methodology and a library of probabilistic models are developed. Risk, in this context, denotes the probability of exceeding the sum of direct and indirect losses due to seismic events. Direct economic losses are due to the repair cost of the physical damage in the components of the network, such as bridges. The indirect losses are due to the reduced capacity of the components for traffic flow, which results in increased travel times in the network. This leads to socioeconomic losses. In this research, a reliability-based approach is adopted to carry out the risk analysis. For this purpose, many interacting probabilistic models including models for the earthquake hazard, infrastructure response, and direct and indirect consequences are needed to compute the losses. This study puts forward new models for probabilistic prediction of the damage, repair cost, and downtime of bridges, as one of the vulnerable components of transportation networks while accounting for time-varying phenomena of deterioration and discounting. To compute the amount of increase in the travel times of the damaged network, an artificial neural network is developed and trained by the data generated from analyzing the transportation network in the EMME/2 computer program. The methodology is showcased by a comprehensive application that features the transportation network of the City of Isfahan, the third largest city in Iran. The results clearly indicate a notable socioeconomic loss, especially in the tail of the loss curve that represents catastrophic earthquakes. Other insights form the analysis are reported and discussed, such as the identification of the most vulnerable bridges, and the ones that take the longest to repair
  9. Keywords:
  10. Bridges ; Deterioration ; Socio-Economic Condition ; Probabilistic Methods ; Seismic Risk Index ; Reliability Model ; Indirect Loss ; Transportation Disruption

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