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Reservoir Reoperation for the Uncertain Future

Khatami, Farboud | 2018

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 50694 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Abrishamchi, Ahmad
  7. Abstract:
  8. Little research has been conducted on the topic of water resources management in case of deep uncertainty. It is vital for the management method to be upgraded in order to accompany future changes. The purpose of this study is to inspect some viable scenarios and deriving proper reservoir management solutions in case of deep uncertainty. This is important due to the fact that future changes are often not considered when water resources structured are being designed. In the past, some researches in this field of study were done; For instance, the effects of climate change on reservoirs have been assessed. Also methods for coming up with scenarios have been proposed, most of which are based on randomness. Former studies have accounted for the effects of only a few specific parameters on decision making; However, in this study, more parameters are used for reservoir management in order to make better decisions. For the purpose of the study, first the data required for reservoir management are estimated, then using this data and considering the suggested scenarios, the reservoir is planned. Finally, the results are expressed in a way that is easy for decision makers and managers to use. To show how the proposed method works, Bukan dam in Urmia basin has been chosen for a case study. The Wonderland model is used for scenario creation. This model is superior to other conventional models in such a way that it can consider the interaction of economy, environment and population, simultaneously. Of course, this model provides rather general results and respecting the precision of the results, is better to be used for understanding changes in the system. Using the Wonderland model, some scenarios with various natural capitals and tax rates and in stochastic states were created and in each case, using the current water usage figures and environmental water requirements, the total future water usage was estimated. For each scenario, using the data created by Wonderland and reservoir properties, the reservoir was planned both with the maximum and minimum environmental needs in mind and without such needs and the storage and release time series were calculated. At this point, to determine how well the reservoir functions under the assumed circumstances, reliability, resiliency and vulnerability indices were calculated for each scenario. Finally, in order to present the result in a way to be easily usable and understandable for managers and experts, the aforementioned time series were expressed in the form of reservoir rule curves. Expressing the results in the form of rule curves has the benefit of concisely presenting large data in a perceptible manner. Aside from the aforementioned diagrams, the results were also presented in the from of mathematical functions to estimate monthly release volumes. Finally, typical reservoir rule curves were illustrated. When using Hedging method and taking the minimum environmental needs into account, Shortage Index (SI), Modified Shortage Index (MSI) and Vulnerability indices had acceptable values. The average values for these indices were 15, 14 and 46 respectively. However, after considering the full environmental requirements, while the SI and MSI indices did not change dramatically, the Vulnerability index experienced an alarming increase. In this case, the indices had the values of 24, 25 and 89 respectively. This clearly shows that the demands associated with the reservoir are far more that what the reservoir is capable of supplying. Notwithstanding, by choosing the appropriate reservoir management methods, the problem can be alleviated to some extent. All in all, according to the results, is is imperative for the management method of the reservoir to be revised and reformed, and reservoir reoperation should be considered
  9. Keywords:
  10. Uncertainty ; Reservoirs ; Dam Reservoir ; Futures Studies ; Reservoir Management ; Reoperation

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