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Detailed seismic risk analysis of buildings using structural reliability methods

Aghababaei, M ; Sharif University of Technology | 2018

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2018.04.001
  3. Publisher: Elsevier Ltd , 2018
  4. Abstract:
  5. This paper presents probabilistic models and methods for detailed seismic risk analysis of structures using structural reliability methods. This approach to risk analysis is an alternative to those that employ the theorem of total probability and conditional probability distributions. Detailed risk analysis entails probabilistic quantification of responses, the ensuing damage of individual structural and nonstructural components, and the resulting economic and social losses. Such an analysis requires a library of probabilistic models for hazards, responses, damage, repair cost, downtime, and casualty with a specific format as presented in this paper. Two analysis options are proposed: one that is based on sampling and another that is based on the first-order reliability method. Furthermore, this paper puts forward importance and sensitivity measures that identify the most important sources of uncertainty and the most important design decisions considering multiple sources of hazard. The developments are showcased by a comprehensive application to a four-story building in Tehran, Iran. The primary results are the loss exceedance probabilities and their disaggregation into direct and indirect economic losses and social loss. The application provides insights into the most vulnerable components, the most influential seismic sources, the most important sources of uncertainty, and the most influential design decisions. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
  6. Keywords:
  7. Economic loss ; Probabilistic model ; Reliability method ; Seismic risk ; Social loss ; Economic analysis ; Hazards ; Losses ; Probability distributions ; Reliability analysis ; Risk assessment ; Seismic design ; Seismology ; Sensitivity analysis ; Structural analysis ; Conditional probability distributions ; Direct and indirect economic loss ; First order reliability methods ; Probabilistic modeling ; Probabilistic quantification ; Reliability methods ; Risk analysis
  8. Source: Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics ; Volume 53 , 2018 , Pages 23-38 ; 02668920 (ISSN)
  9. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0266892017300747