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A Study of the Effects of Political-economic Shocks on Foreign Tourism Demand in Iran

Ghanbari, Niloufar | 2019

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 51887 (01)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Industrial Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Kianfar, Farhad
  7. Abstract:
  8. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of political-economic shocks on the demand for foreign tourism in the country. In order to achieve this goal, tourism demand was simulated with the dynamics of systems. After validating the simulated model, the forecast of tourism demand of the country was carried out in three areas of cultural-historical tourism, pilgrimage and business. The results were measured according to the tourist attraction document of Iran for 2025. The results show that reaching 16.3 million tourists by 2025 cannot be achieved if the performance of the state's private and public entities in each sector of the tourism industry continues to meet current conditions. The results show that in the event of a negative shock in the exchange rate, a significant part of the increase in tourism is related to the number of pilgrimage tourists. Also, the impact of shocks on the political stability of the country did not affect the number of pilgrimage tourists, but reduced the number of cultural-historical tourists by half. With a negative impact on investment in the development of transportation and accommodation sectors, the amount of recreational tourism demand has come down significantly. Therefore, in view of the government's plan to increase the number of cultural-historical tourists, more attention should be paid to the development of transportation, accommodation and advertising sectors, and investment policies in these three areas should be taken into consideration. Considering the integration of different scenarios and analyzing the results, in order to develop the tourism industry of the country, all stakeholders of the tourism industry should cooperate with partners in providing political packages, otherwise, at a very high cost of investment, will receive lower returns
  9. Keywords:
  10. Tourism ; Tourism Demand ; Political-Economic Shocks ; System Dynamic

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