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Impact of temporal correlations on high risk outbreaks of independent and cooperative SIR dynamics

Sajjadi, S ; Sharif University of Technology | 2021

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253563
  3. Publisher: Public Library of Science , 2021
  4. Abstract:
  5. We first propose a quantitative approach to detect high risk outbreaks of independent and coinfective SIR dynamics on three empirical networks: A school, a conference and a hospital contact network. This measurement is based on the k-means clustering method and identifies proper samples for calculating the mean outbreak size and the outbreak probability. Then we systematically study the impact of different temporal correlations on high risk outbreaks over the original and differently shuffled counterparts of each network. We observe that, on the one hand, in the coinfection process, randomization of the sequence of the events increases the mean outbreak size of high-risk cases. On the other hand, these correlations do not have a consistent effect on the independent infection dynamics, and can either decrease or increase this mean. Randomization of the daily pattern correlations has no strong impact on the size of the outbreak in either the coinfection or the independent spreading cases. We also observe that an increase in the mean outbreak size does not always coincide with an increase in the outbreak probability; therefore, we argue that merely considering the mean outbreak size of all realizations may lead us into falsely estimating the outbreak risks. Our results suggest that some sort of contact randomization in the organizational level in schools, events or hospitals might help to suppress the spreading dynamics while the risk of an outbreak is high. © 2021 Sajjadi et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited
  6. Keywords:
  7. Algorithm ; Calculation ; Coinfection ; Community structure ; Epidemic ; Hazard ; High risk population ; Histogram ; Human ; Probability ; Risk assessment ; Cluster analysis ; Coinfection ; Epidemic ; Hospital ; Risk factor ; School ; Thermodynamics ; Cluster Analysis ; Coinfection ; Disease Outbreaks ; Hospitals ; Humans ; Probability ; Risk Factors ; Schools ; Thermodynamics
  8. Source: PLoS ONE ; Volume 16, Issue 7 July , 2021 ; 19326203 (ISSN)
  9. URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0253563