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Probabilistic Modelig of the Earthquake-induced Losses Resulted from the Shock to Capital and Labor

Doroudi, Omid | 2021

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 54633 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Kashani, Hamed
  7. Abstract:
  8. Estimation of indirect economic losses due to natural disasters, especially earthquakes, is one of the essential issues in disaster management. This study presents a framework that uses an economic model of the community under study and calculates the indirect economic losses caused by an earthquake. To this end, first, the earthquake-induced direct economic losses are quantified using appropriate risk analysis models. The direct losses are used to characterize the consequent shock to labor and capital. These shocks are then used as inputs to the regional economic model. In the proposed framework, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model uses various data about the state of the community to determine how an economy reacts to shocks caused by the earthquake. To incorporate the uncertainty about the earthquake and its consequences, the proposed framework uses Monte Carlo sampling to generate numerous sample earthquake scenarios on which the analysis is conducted. Also, sensitivity analysis is performed on several exogenous variables to study the impact of the changes of these variables on the scenario outcomes. The proposed framework is applied to studying the indirect economic losses of an earthquake in a virtual community called INSURER city. The contribution of this research is considering the impact of a shock to capital and labor simultaneously and modeling the indirect economic losses from a probabilistic perspective
  9. Keywords:
  10. Infrastructure ; Earthquake ; Reliability ; Computable General Equilibrium ; Probabilistic Modeling ; Simulation ; Community Resilience ; Financial Market ; Indirect Loss

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