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The Effect of Price Shock Diffusion in Tehran Housing Market

Abolhelm, Hamid Reza | 2022

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 55092 (44)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Management and Economics
  6. Advisor(s): Talebian, Masoud; Joshaghani, Hossein
  7. Abstract:
  8. Due to the fluctuations of macro-economic factors, Tehran’s housing market has experienced several nominal price shocks. We aim to find a method to study the spatiotemporal dispersion of the shock, the center for this shock (if one exists), and the shock diffusion in Tehran’s housing market. There are similar studies in different geographical locations, but almost all of them have focused on shock dispersion across regions and states rather than within a city. While there are a bulk of the studies to construct a usable House Price Index in Iran and the effect of macro-economic factors on house prices, a similar study was yet to be done for a specific city or across wider regions in the housing market. We focus on the metropolis of Tehran and use the sample of all transacted houses during the timespan of April 2010 to July 2019, which consists of more than 1300000 observations. Our Study revealed that districts 10 and 14 of Tehran municipality predict the housing price of Tehran during the shock as well as beforehand to the extent of two months. Therefore, the housing market players could consider and monitor the BMN or Case-Shiller Index of these two districts to set their trading strategies for more financial gains.
  9. Keywords:
  10. Housing Market ; Housing Price ; Spatiotemporal Dispersion ; Repeated Sales Indices ; Case-Shiller Home Price Index ; BMN Index ; Tehran City

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