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Modeling and Optimization of the Penetration of Hydrogen in the Iranian Energy System Through Low-Carbon Strategies

Sharifian, Mohammad | 2024

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 56910 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Khajehpour, Hossein
  7. Abstract:
  8. Today, the rapid and increasing growth of various human societies has led to an increased consumption of energy and the need for new resources. In fact, the excessive consumption of energy, especially fossil fuels, has caused adverse and sometimes irreversible effects on the human environment. Also, the consumption of different types of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, leads to a significant increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. On the other hand, population growth and technological advancements in the last century have led to an increase in the demand for energy carriers. Therefore, the use of new energy sources instead of fossil fuels is an inevitable matter. Future energy systems must rely on structural and fundamental changes in which carbon-free energy sources such as solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass are utilized. Hydrogen, as a clean fuel, can be a suitable replacement for other conventional fossil fuels and emerge as an energy carrier in the future. The ease of its production from water, its nearly unique consumption, and its inherent environmental benefits are among the features that distinguish hydrogen compared to other fuel options. Iran, with its abundant fossil resources, has a good opportunity for the production, consumption, and export of hydrogen in the coming decade. For the movement and increase of hydrogen's penetration in the country's energy portfolio, it is necessary to see this clean fuel in the country's energy supply system. The energy supply system is an interconnected combination of various technologies that are used at different levels of the energy sector (extraction and recovery of primary energy, processing, conversion, transmission, distribution, and production of useful energy) and acts as part of the economic-energy cycle. Therefore, the capacity for expanding the penetration of hydrogen in the energy portfolio should not be examined separately but alongside other energy carriers. In this research, the present study deals with the modeling and optimization of Iran's energy supply system with an approach to hydrogen penetration under 4 low-carbon scenarios (imposing carbon dioxide emission tax, granting facilities to hydrogen production technologies, applying carbon dioxide emission reduction constraints, subsidy removal from energy carriers) in the time frame from 2012 to 2040 up to the final energy layer. Initially, the modeling of the country's energy supply system was conducted with the OSeMOSY model, and its results were evaluated and validated with past studies. Subsequently, by adding the entire hydrogen production supply chain alongside other energy supply system technologies in the country, the opportunities and potentials for expanding the hydrogen industry in Iran's energy supply system were identified. Additionally, an economic and environmental comparison of the scenarios was conducted. The results show that if the current trend continues, the use of methane steam reforming technology (grey hydrogen) will be the best option for hydrogen production. With the implementation of low-carbon scenarios and considering the entire energy supply system, the scenario of imposing a tax on emissions at a rate of 30 M$/〖MtCo〗_2 will be the best option. Under this scenario, the capacity of methane steam reforming technology with carbon capture and storage system will grow from 2029 and by 2040, it will meet 47% of the country's hydrogen demand. Also, in this scenario, the total carbon dioxide emissions in the energy supply system in 2040 will be 472.27 million tons, which is a 29% reduction compared to the continuation of the current trend, and the cumulative capital investment cost of the entire energy supply system in this scenario will be 551.45 billion dollars. If only the hydrogen supply chain is prioritized, the scenario of granting facilities to the entire hydrogen supply chain will be the best scenario in terms of economy and environment. Under this scenario, hydrogen production using electrolyzer technology and benefiting from renewable system electricity will gradually replace methane steam reforming technology to meet hydrogen demand. Also, the carbon dioxide emissions of the hydrogen supply chain in 2040 in this scenario will be zero, and the country will be able to produce all its hydrogen needs without any pollution. It should be noted that the cumulative capital investment cost of the hydrogen supply chain in this scenario in 2040 will be 26.9 billion dollars, which is a 7.4% reduction compared to the continuation of the current trend and will be less than other scenarios.In the end, it can be said that decision-making in the energy sector and changes in the current energy supply system require considering technical, economic, social, environmental, cultural parameters, and more. This issue indicates that achieving sustainable development in the energy sector is necessary and unavoidable. Sustainable development of the energy system necessitates policy-making for easy and reliable access to energy services at the lowest economic, environmental, and health costs, and optimal policy-making occurs in the context of optimal allocation of energy resources, labor, and capital while enhancing the efficiency of resource utilization. In this regard, the developed model presented will be an important and efficient tool for understanding the current state of energy consumption and production, as well as predicting future trends in the energy sector, especially hydrogen
  9. Keywords:
  10. Energy Supply Model ; Fossil Fuels ; Renewable Energy Resources ; Energy Modeling ; Energy Optimization ; Hydrogen Supply Chain ; OseMOSYS Model ; Low-Carbon Policies

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