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Are the magnitude and frequency of floods increasing in Iran due to climate change? implications from a 50-year analysis

Bayat Afshary, N ; Sharif University of Technology | 2023

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2259904
  3. Publisher: Taylor and Francis Ltd , 2023
  4. Abstract:
  5. The correlation between extreme precipitation and flood magnitude is still poorly understood because of the complex mechanisms controlling flood generation. In this study, we used 50 years of precipitation and streamflow data across Iran to analyse the spatial distribution, slope, and significance of long-term trends in extreme precipitation compared to the spatial distribution of long-term trends for flood magnitude and frequency. Despite the decreasing trend of extreme precipitation in 60% of Iran’s sub-basins, the flood magnitude showed an increasing trend. In particular, the number of flooding days with a return period of 25~50 years and >50 years in 2010s has increased by 1.3 and 2.2 times, respectively, compared to that in 2000s. We attributed the above contrasting relationship between extreme precipitation and flood magnitude to the influence of an increase in short-duration extreme precipitations, extensive land use and land cover change, and reduced soil infiltration due to long-term droughts. © 2023 IAHS
  6. Keywords:
  7. Anthropogenic flood ; Climate change ; Extreme precipitation ; Flood frequency ; Flood magnitude ; Iran
  8. Source: Hydrological Sciences Journal ; Volume 68, Issue 15 , 2023 , Pages 2243-2261 ; 02626667 (ISSN)
  9. URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02626667.2023.2259904