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Development of a Model to Evaluate the Social Aspects of Energy System (Case study: Residential Sector)

Golzari, Soudabeh | 2024

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 57920 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Saboohi, Yadollah; Khajehpour, Hossein
  7. Abstract:
  8. Overcoming environmental problems caused by fossil fuel consumption and responding to the increasing energy demand creates the need for energy systems to transition towards low-carbon systems. The residential sector, as one of the sub-sectors of demand, accounts for a significant fraction of energy consumption, especially for heating and cooling. To achieve sustainable development goals, energy consumption management in this sector is essential. The use of high-efficiency appliances is a determining factor in demand and one of the most important requirements for energy consumption management. However, most energy system models include economic characteristics of technologies and do not consider families' preferences when choosing technologies. This study aims to investigate household behavior in adopting technology and to design appropriate programs and policies for energy consumption management with a more realistic approach. To achieve this goal, the conceptual model is developed based on consumer behavior using microeconomic principles in technology adoption, and the composition of technologies and final energy demand are studied. The model consists of two stages: first, the factors affecting energy consumption and technology selection are examined using the statistical models of quantile panel data and multinomial logit, and then, by developing a simulation model, the diffusion of technologies in the residential sector is evaluated by considering technological system options and consumer preferences. In examining the parameters influencing household adoption behavior, the results indicate that the heterogeneous preferences of families in choosing home appliances are affected by their socio-demographic characteristics. Urbanization, education level, building type, and annual household expenditure are the most effective parameters in choosing heating and cooling equipment. Educated and young families with a high level of welfare are more inclined to use new technologies, including wall-mounted packages and split air conditioners for heating and cooling, especially in urban areas, these families can be targeted as early adopters in the policy-making or marketing of a product. In the second stage, a model for technology diffusion was developed, which shows that if the current trend continues, gas heaters and evaporative coolers will remain dominant technologies. If their efficiency is not improved, considering the increasing demand for useful energy till 1425, final energy demand in the heating and cooling will rise by 24% and 25% compared to the base year,1401. Several scenarios including policies for supporting the diffusion of high-efficiency technologies as well as new technologies and renewable energy such as condensing and solar systems have been applied in the model. The results indicate that by applying supporting scenarios for heating, CO2 emissions can be reduced by 26% in the urban sector and 18% in the rural sector. These values for the cooling sector are 25% and 11%, respectively. Increasing the efficiency of conventional technologies has a greater impact on achieving these goals, and new technologies will have a gradual penetration in the system. Several scenarios show that policies to replace old technologies with high-efficiency technologies have a greater impact on changing the share of technologies. Changing the technology diffusion in the country, where the share of renewable energies and high-efficiency technologies like condensing systems is low, requires more effort to implement appropriate policies to ensure that these technologies expand more rapidly and intensively
  9. Keywords:
  10. Consumer Behavior ; Discrete Chaos ; Technology Diffusion ; Household Heterogeneity ; Household Preference ; Residential Customer

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