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Modeling the Effectiveness of the National Market for Energy Efficiency and Environment on Natural Gas Consumption

Kheirbakhshi, Hamid Reza | 2025

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 58032 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Khajehpour, Hossein
  7. Abstract:
  8. In Iran, considering the economic growth outlook and the economy's dependence on energy, significant imbalances have emerged, particularly in the supply and demand of natural gas. In this research, a model has been developed to optimally analyze the supply of energy service demand based on natural gas in the residential sector. The aim of this study is to determine the optimal portfolio of technologies available in the Iranian market, estimate the potential for gas savings under the energy and environmental optimization market mechanism, and propose policies to enhance its performance. To account for diverse climatic and economic conditions across provinces, the country has been divided into 93 different income-province categories. The model was then completed by calculating the current demand for energy services and extracting the capacity of existing technologies in the country. In this study, two main scenarios were examined. The first scenario focuses on minimizing the total cost of the supply system while meeting energy service demand, aiming to identify the optimal technology portfolio from the perspective of the energy supplier. The results of this scenario indicate that with an investment of $1.3 billion and the use of the optimal technology portfolio, up to 24.4 billion cubic meters of gas (equivalent to 11% of the country's total gas consumption) can be saved in the residential sector. It was also found that the lowest-cost energy optimization potential belongs to the low-income category, and prioritizing financial assistance for this group could be more effective. In the second scenario, consumer behavior and the impact of gas pricing were analyzed. The results showed that replacing old technologies with new ones is economically viable only in higher price tiers, while in the lower tiers, no change occurs in the portfolio of utilized technologies. In another scenario, by imposing a nationwide gas consumption limit, it was found that part of the savings would be automatically economical without requiring incentives. However, for cases where the reduction in gas consumption costs does not cover investment expenses, utilizing the energy optimization market and selling certificates in this market is necessary to justify these projects. Moreover, the results of this study indicate that offering classified certificates can activate a larger portion of the energy optimization market potential and reduce the government's opportunity cost associated with issuing energy-saving certificates. Reducing investment risk in this market is another key factor in increasing participation, and the development of comprehensive policies along with the provision of economic guarantees can facilitate this process
  9. Keywords:
  10. Energy Services ; Optimal Portfolio ; Residential Energy Model ; Natural Gas Consumption ; Energy Market ; National Market for Environment ; National Market for Energy Efficiency ; Conversion Technologies Optimal Portfolio

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