Loading...

Analyzing Relationship between the U.S. Presidential Elections and Energy Market: A Mathematical Approach

Koneshloo, Amir Reza | 2025

0 Viewed
  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 58277 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Maleki, Abbas
  7. Abstract:
  8. This study investigates the relationship between U.S. presidential elections (1976–2024) and the energy market, with a focus on the impact of fluctuations in oil supply and gasoline prices on voter behavior and its implications for Iran’s energy policymaking. Employing a data-driven approach, the study utilizes random forest models to assess the importance of various variables in predicting election outcomes, point-biserial correlation analysis to examine the relationships between economic and energy indicators, and game theory modeling to develop optimal energy policy strategies for Iran in response to U.S. actions. Historical data on energy markets, election results, and relevant policies in nine key swing states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) were analyzed. The results of the random forest model and correlation analysis revealed that economic variables—particularly state-level GDP and unemployment rate—alongside global crises, exert greater influence on election outcomes than energy-related variables such as gasoline prices and carbon emissions. State-level energy production also showed relatively higher importance in southern states such as Florida and Georgia, though its overall effect was secondary to economic indicators. Contrary to some initial assumptions, gasoline prices demonstrated a limited impact on voter behavior. For Iran, the dynamic game theory model proposes a defensive strategy that includes managing oil supply, diversifying export markets (e.g., China and India), and strengthening domestic energy infrastructure as an optimal response to U.S. policies. This strategy can help mitigate the impact of sanctions and enhance Iran’s economic resilience. The findings highlight the necessity of anticipating global geopolitical shifts and reducing dependency on oil revenues, offering practical tools for Iranian policymakers to design more effective strategies. Future research can expand this field by incorporating more granular regional data, analyzing climate policies, and applying artificial intelligence-based modeling techniques
  9. Keywords:
  10. United State Presidential Election ; Energy Market ; Gasoline Price ; Energy Policy ; Iran

 Digital Object List

 Bookmark

No TOC