The Impact of Taliban Governance on Unemployment Rates in Iran

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Bokaii, Reza | 2025

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Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
Language: Farsi
Document No: 58427 (44)
University: Sharif University of Technology
Department: Management and Economics
Advisor(s): Keshavarz Haddad, Gholamreza
Abstract:
On August 15, 2021, following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban regained political and military power after 20 years. These developments triggered a large wave of migration from Afghanistan to various countries, including Iran. Due to geographical proximity, linguistic and cultural commonalities, easy access to the labor market, the presence of relatives of Afghan migrants, and proximity to Europe among other neighboring cultures, Iran became a primary destination for these migrants. This study, using Labor Force Survey (LFS) data from 2019-2020 to 2023-2024 (1398-1402 in the Iranian calendar) and setting the event time in 2021-2022 (1400), examines the impact of this event on Iran's labor market, particularly unemployment. Given the restrictions imposed by the Iranian Ministry of Interior regarding the settlement of Afghan migrants in certain provinces, this research employs a difference-in-differences impact identification strategy. The findings indicate that the influx of Afghan migrants into Iran led to a limited increase in the probability of unemployment among low-skilled men, while they complement the female labor force in the labor market
Keywords:
Migration ; Iranian Labor Market ; Afghan Nationals ; Unemployment ; Labor Flow

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