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Developing a Risk Assessment Model of Energy Service Companies (ESCO) for Optimal Allocation of Financial Resources

Ahmadi, Mohsen | 2016

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 49408 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s):
  7. Abstract:
  8. The main aim of this project is to develop a model for risk assessment of energy service companies (ESCO) using energy efficiency and emission trading markets. For this purpose, structure of the market has been developed and then by explaining the interactions between ESCO and other members of the market, ESCO's cash flows have been determineded. In the next stage, probability distribution of the cash flows have been extracted and risk assessment have been performed. The differences in energy prices coming from subsidies is the foundation of this market. In this market, ESCO will sell the saved energy rights which has been achieved in the low price level sector to the other sector with high price level. In this project, producing of 1 MW electricity from waste heat using organic rankin cycle in the Assaluyeh region has been conducted. The Proceeds of the saved Methane gas will be added to the profit of achieved by electricity production. Using this approach present value of cash flows in the 5, 7, 9 and 11 timescales is increased by 0.72, 0.94, 1.24 and 1.42 million dollar respectively. Activity level of the corporation is the main uncertainty. If this level is fixed, the afore mentioned amounts respectively will be 0.82, 1.09, 1.4 and 1.62 million dollar. Also in the emissions sector, production of 280,000 tons of Methanol using CO2 pollutant has been investigated. Corporation activity level and Methanol price are the main uncertainaties. If the activity level is fixed at 91 percent of nominal capacity and Methanol price is set at in 275 USD/ton, net present value of cash flows in 7, 9, 11 and 13 timescales respectively will be increased by 35.4, 49.7, 54.1 and 70.6 million dollar in comparison with the calculations based on probability distributions of the variables
  9. Keywords:
  10. Risk ; Carbon Dioxide ; Energy Service Company ; Energy Efficiency ; Methane ; Emission Cost ; Pollutants Dispersion ; Optimum Allocation

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