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Modelling the Interaction Between Electricity Supply System and Climate Change: the Case Study of Iran

Zamani Pourghohroud, Behzad | 2021

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 54077 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Saboohi, Yadollah
  7. Abstract:
  8. The power supply system is one of the most important and complex systems. Various factors affect this system. Climate change affects different parts of the power supply system. In this study, the effect of climate change on electricity demand and electricity supply system has been investigated by considering the limited water resources. The amount of water withdrawal and GHG emissions in different scenarios. Scenarios are considered in such a way that assess the probable rising prices of fuels and water, and carbon taxes at three levels. Also, scenarios of rising water prices have been considered to evaluate the effect of this policy alone. It is worth noting that power plants are modeled with their cooling systems, and it is possible to turn a wet cooling system into a dry one during its lifetime.The ARDL econometric method is used to model electricity demand. Electricity demand is forecasted in two scenarios and four sectors: residential, industrial, services (public and commercial), and agricultural. This estimate takes into account the effect of air temperature changes due to climate change, which increases the need for cooling in the residential and commercial sectors. The TIMES model is used to model the power supply system. This model is a tool for optimizing energy systems. The developed model is a single-region model.The results show that in the business as usual scenario, GHG emissions will increase significantly. Rising prices for fuels and water, along with carbon taxes, make renewable technologies more justifiable. Also, rising water price alone will reduce water withdrawals. In addition, in the scenarios of rising water prices, the dry cooling system will be more economical for new power plants, and some existing power plants will switch from wet to dry cooling
  9. Keywords:
  10. Water ; Climate Change ; Greenhouse Gases ; Gas Propagation ; Electricity Demand ; Electricity Supply System

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