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Cost-Benefit Analysis of Greenhouse Gases Emissions Reduction in Iran’s Power Sector for Implementing the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution Under the Paris Agreement

Zahedi Motlagh, Amin | 2022

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 55321 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Maleki, Abbas
  7. Abstract:
  8. The Cost/Benefit Analysis (CBA) is considered to be among the chief and most widely used analytical tools in the realm of public policy and particularly environmental and climatic planning. The National Strategic Plan on Climate Change—a.k.a., Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) of Iran—under the Paris Agreement (PA) accommodates sets of measures to be undertaken in various sectors of the country, including energy and specifically the power generation sub-sector, so as to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study begins with a regression analysis of historical data to identify current trends of fossil fuels consumption, wherefrom the emission level of relevant greenhouse gases in the sub-sector is estimated to reach some 246 million tons of CO2eq in 2030. This figure might also have been rising more rapidly than previously expected. Next, the implementation of said measures is analyzed through the cost/benefit analysis—from a social and macroeconomic viewpoint—giving a net present value (NPV) of about $14.7 billions and an internal rate of return (IRR) of approximately 19.2%. Full implementation of the INDC—assuming its timely ratification and entry into action—could cut emissions by 18 to 20 percent in the 2025 horizon, well above the conditional mitigation target of 12%. During the entire period )up to 2030(, 361 TWh of cumulative green electricity and almost $18.9 billion in natural gas exports revenue will be generated.
  9. Keywords:
  10. Climate Change ; Iran ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Paris Climate Accord ; Power Generation Subsector ; Greenhouse Gases

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