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Assessment of vulnerability reduction policies: Integration of economic and cognitive models of decision-making

Morshedi, M. A ; Sharif University of Technology | 2022

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.108057
  3. Publisher: Elsevier Ltd , 2022
  4. Abstract:
  5. Earthquakes can cause significant damage to vulnerable residential buildings and cause irreversible adverse economic, social, and socioeconomic consequences. Implementing hazard mitigation policies can enhance homeowners' willingness to adopt hazard mitigation measures such as seismic retrofits or insurance. Several past studies have proposed models that aimed to explain individuals' hazard mitigation behavior. Despite their advantages, these decision-making models are subject to limitations. This manuscript proposes a new decision-making model that addresses the shortcomings of previous models. The proposed decision-making model is then incorporated at the core of an agent-based model to evaluate owners' responses to candidate hazard mitigation policies. The proposed decision-making model considers the characteristics of the buildings, the owners' attitude, and their condition-dependent response to proposed incentives. Hence, it can effectively explain homeowners' behavior when presented with various alternatives for mitigating the seismic risk. It can be applied to measure the impact of marginal changes in government subsidies to minimize community losses, as demonstrated in the illustrative example. Practitioners and policymakers can use the outcomes of the proposed model to select appropriate policies to enhance communities' resilience based on physical infrastructure characteristics. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
  6. Keywords:
  7. Agent-based simulation ; Decision-making model ; Policy evaluation ; Seismic retrofit ; Autonomous agents ; Computational methods ; Decision making ; Decision theory ; Hazards ; Retrofitting ; Seismology ; Agent based simulation ; Decision-making modeling ; Economic models ; Expected utility theory ; Hazard mitigations ; Mitigation policies ; Policies integrations ; Seismic retrofits ; Vulnerability reductions ; Insurance
  8. Source: Reliability Engineering and System Safety ; Volume 217 , 2022 ; 09518320 (ISSN)
  9. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0951832021005597