Sharif Digital Repository

Artificial neural networks are mathematical models inspired by the nervous system and brain. The types and applications of these networks are very widespread nowadays, and it seems that they can be used to track the signals well and estimate the data of the next. In this research, we try to present a model that can predict the future of the trend of noisy signals that have unpredictable behavior, or in other words, chaotic signals. Such research is also widely used in the medical sciences, including the diagnosis of epileptic seizures or heart attacks. In this research, a study with high volatility financial data has been done as an example on this issue and the proposed model tries to be... 

Predicting oil prices, especially in exporting countries, will help governments in the policy-making process by obtaining a reliable estimate of oil revenues. The existence of a complex mechanism governing the process of oil price formation has reduced the efficiency of linear models in forecasting and led researchers to use nonlinear intelligent systems to predict oil prices. In this study, after a detailed study of the structure of artificial neural network, two models of neural network GMDH and MLP and ARIMA method have been used to predict oil price. There are important factors in the prediction process with neural networks, and if all these factors are selected correctly; One can expect... 

Learning is an essential mechanism for the survival of living things. There are different types of learning, and value learning is among the most important types. A child learns that water resolves the thirst need by repeatedly experiencing this situation. Eventually, the value of water, which has been valueless before that, increases gradually in his mind. How this concept is encoded in the brain? previous works reveal the role of different neurons and regions that are relevant to value learning. However, population analysis and dynamic modeling are less considered. Moreover, the links between different brain regions are unknown.Finding the relationship between two relevant regions of the... 

Real-time travel time estimation is a major requirement in many transportation related systems. One of the main challeges is to estimate the traffic speed and then forecast it for a short time. A valuable data source for this task is instant location of moving cars that is captured using global positioning system (GPS) and sent through internet in online manner. The main problem is that the resulting traffic data is severely sparse and also contains a lot of noise. Previous researchs on this type of data are mostly based on matrix or tensor factorization. In this work it is shown that despite the large fraction of missing value it is possible to use neural network for this problem with some... 

Water shortages resulting from macro-environmental climate changes as well as local inefficient agricultural practices and dam constructions activities have resulted in the gradual reduction of water level in Urmia Lake, located in the northwest of Iran. As such, restoration efforts were initiated to prevent further adverse impacts exacerbating the conditions and creating secondary problems such as regional salt dust generation and dispersion, resulting in health issues for the greater area population in the neighboring vicinities. The utilization of advanced forecast modeling based on deep learning algorithms can assist the authorities to manage better multi-dimensional issues affecting the... 

This study proposes a method to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of the rolling element bearings (REBs) by forecasting the future trend of the peak of the acceleration signal. It is also employed to determine an appropriate time interval between the measurements of REBs vibration to reduce the error of forecasting and avoid collecting too much data in addition to increasing the reliability. In the first step, in order to achieve better results, the history of the acceleration peak is transformed into a stationary space before using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model to make it normally distributed and stationary. Then, LSTM forecasts the future trend of the stationary time series... 

Performing analysis and forecasting is crucial. Better forecasting will lead to better decisions. One method for predicting the future is time series analysis. In reality, it is common for an intervention to occur and alter the characteristics of a time series. In recent years, interrupted time series analysis has been receiving a lot of attention. A new forecasting method for interrupted time series has been developed in this study. This is a system dynamics-based approach. At every stage of the approach, system thinking is incorporated. In order to model the effects of a given intervention, common modes of behavior in dynamic systems are used. Furthermore, control theory has been used to...