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Dynamic model for market-based capacity investment decision considering stochastic characteristic of wind power

Hasani Marzooni, M ; Sharif University of Technology | 2011

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2011.01.018
  3. Publisher: 2011
  4. Abstract:
  5. This paper proposes a decentralized market-based model for long-term capacity investment decisions in a liberalized electricity market with significant wind power generation. In such an environment, investment and construction decisions are based on price signal feedbacks and imperfect foresight of future conditions in electricity market. System dynamics concepts are used to model structural characteristics of power market such as, long-term firms' behavior and relationships between variables, feedbacks and time delays. For conventional generation units, short-term price feedback for generation dispatching of forward market is implemented as well as long-term price expectation for profitability assessment in capacity investment. For wind power generation, a special framework is proposed in which generation firms are committed depending on the statistical nature of wind power. The method is based on the time series stochastic simulation process for prediction of wind speed using historical and probabilistic data. The auto-correlation nature of wind speed and the correlation with demand fluctuations are modeled appropriately. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to assess the effect of demand growth rate and wind power uncertainties. Such a decision model enables the companies to find out the possible consequences of their different investment decisions. Different regulatory policies and market conditions can also be assessed by ISOs and regulators to check the performance of market rules. A case study is presented exhibiting the effectiveness of the proposed model for capacity expansion of electricity markets in which the market prices and the generation capacities are fluctuating due to uncertainty of wind power generation
  6. Keywords:
  7. System dynamics ; Time series simulation ; Wind power generation ; Capacity expansion ; Capacity investment ; Conventional generation ; Decision models ; Demand fluctuations ; Demand growth ; Electricity market ; Forward market ; Generation capacity ; Investment decisions ; Liberalized electricity market ; Market condition ; Market price ; Monte carlo simulation technique ; Power markets ; Price signals ; Probabilistic data ; Regulatory policies ; Stochastic characteristic ; Stochastic simulations ; Structural characteristics ; System Dynamics ; Time series simulation ; Wind speed ; Commerce ; Computer simulation ; Costs ; Electric generators ; Electric industry ; Electricity ; Feedback ; Investments ; Monte Carlo methods ; Profitability ; Rating ; Stochastic models ; Stochastic systems ; System theory ; Time series ; Uncertainty analysis ; Wind effects ; Wind power ; Electric power generation ; Decentralization ; Decision making ; Energy market ; Growth rate ; Investment ; Monte Carlo analysis ; Numerical model ; Power generation ; Profitability ; Stochasticity ; Theoretical study ; Time series analysis ; Wind power
  8. Source: Renewable Energy ; Volume 36, Issue 8 , August , 2011 , Pages 2205-2219 ; 09601481 (ISSN)
  9. URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148111000401