Loading...

Conflict Resolution of water resources Allocation Using Game Theory under Climate Change Impact (Case Study: Zarinehrood basin)

Hemati, Hasti | 2018

536 Viewed
  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 51308 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Abrishamchi, Ahmad; Tajrishi, Masoud
  7. Abstract:
  8. Increasing water consumption via competitive demands has resulted in serious water conflicts and the subsequent environmental crisis in river basins. The combined effects of climate change on river flow and growing water demand due to population growth, industrial and agricultural developments cause an increase of water scarcity in many basins. This is one of the drivers of both noncompliance with water allocation agreements and conflicts over the property rights to river water. Conflicts often arise when different water users compete for a limited water supply. Thus an integrated, sustainable, efficient and fair water allocation considering changes in water resources due to climate change and change of user`s demand is necessary. The objective of this thesis is to analyze water allocation in Zarinehrood river basins, considering impact of climate change on its hydrologic parameters. The drainage basin of Zarinehrood is a valuable water resource that supply the water needs such as; drinking, industrial, agricultural and environmental, and makes 40 percent inflow to Urmia lake. Assessing climate change impact on Zarinehrood river basin, scenarios of fifth IPCC reports e.g. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, had been used. For downscaling outputs of GCMs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and for bias correction a Quantile Mapping (QM) method has been used. Then a rainfall-runoff model based on SCS method and using precipitation of climate change scenarios had been developed. Next, using time series and historical data an ARMA model for forecasting evaporation had been created. Then taking into account some assumptions for predicting future demands, a water resources management program had been used to assess the water available for allocating to users. Using a bargaining game and the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS) with two methods one symmetric and two AHP method, the water available for users had been allocated and each player`s share of water had been divided with goal of 100 percent meeting the drinking, industrial and environmental demand and the deficits had been determined. Set of players for this game consisted of West Azarbaijan, East Azarbaijan, Kordestan and because of the sensitive situation of Urmia lake it had been considered as the fourth player of the game. The results indicate an overall increase in temperature and precipitation in the basin. In bargaining game solutions AHP method provided better utilities for players than Symmetric method. This results and evaluations shows that with water management program and use of a cooperative bargaining game water allocation can be done in a fair and efficient way
  9. Keywords:
  10. Water Allocation ; Climate Change ; Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) ; Game Theory ; Artificial Neural Network ; Quantile Mapping (QM) ; Optimization Operation Policy (OOP)

 Digital Object List

 Bookmark

No TOC