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Policy framework of non-fossil power plants in Iran’s electricity sector by 2030

Abbasi Godarzi, A ; Sharif University of Technology | 2020

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.5278/ijsepm.5692
  3. Publisher: Aalborg University press , 2020
  4. Abstract:
  5. The Iranian government has set a target of a 20% share of non-fossil fuel electricity generation by 2030, whose main result is reducing Green House Gas (GHG) emissions (about 182 million tonnes in 2017) to achieve the targets pledged under the Paris Climate Accord. So, this paper presents a comprehensive model on the expansion of non-fossil technology to evaluate the impact of increasing their share in Iran’s electricity supply system. This analytical approach is based on system dynamics (SD) that was developed based on dynamic behavior of electricity market, with an emphasis on the expansion of non-fossil fuels (solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, expansion turbines, and hydro power) in the supply side of this model by electricity price reformation. For this purpose, we developed four scenarios with different share percent of non-fossil technologies in Iran’s electricity system. The findings demonstrate that electricity price must be determined based on the costs of non-fossil technologies, as well as based on fossil fuel prices which are low in the current energy supply system and its value was predicted that increased to maximum of 2.03 cent USD/kWh. In conclusion, in the best scenario, the Paris Climate Accord criteria is achieved with a 20% growth of non-fossil fuels and increasing electricity price to 2.54 cent USD/ kWh in 2030 with 0.19 price elasticity of emission. © 2020, Aalborg University press. All rights reserved
  6. Keywords:
  7. Electricity Price ; Green House Emission ; Modeling ; System Dynamics ; Costs ; Diffusers (optical) ; Electric industry ; Expansion ; Fossil fuel power plants ; Gas emissions ; Greenhouse gases ; Hydroelectric power plants ; Photovoltaic effects ; Analytical approach ; Comprehensive model ; Electricity generation ; Electricity supply ; Electricity system ; Expansion turbines ; Fossil power plants ; Solar photovoltaics ; Fossil fuels
  8. Source: International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management ; Volume 29 , 2020 , Pages 91-108
  9. URL: https://journals.aau.dk/index.php/sepm/article/view/5692