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Seismic Risk Analysis of the City of Golpayegan Using Reliability Methods

Zibaei, Yasin | 2021

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 54193 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Mahsuli, Mojtaba
  7. Abstract:
  8. This thesis presents the seismic hazard and seismic risk analysis of the City of Golpayegan using reliability methods and multiple interacting probabilistic models. These models evaluate the seismic hazard intensity by simulating the hazard event and evaluate the seismic risk by simulating the building portfolio and infrastructure systems under the hazard event and quantifying the ensuing consequences. In this context, hazard is the exceedance probability of a ground shaking intensity measure, and risk is the exceedance probability of social and economic losses. This is the first time in the literature that reliability methods are applied in evaluating the seismic risk of a real-world city considering its building portfolio and water and electric power infrastructure systems. In this research, extensive efforts have been made to collect information on the infrastructure systems of the City of Golpayegan. As the collected information is mainly raw and imperfect, this study proposes practical solutions to estimate the data required for modeling the infrastructure systems of the city in cases of data deficiency or insufficiency. The proposed solutions are feasible to be employed as a reproducible procedure for data estimation in other midsize cities of the country. Next, the processed information is used as the input for risk and resilience probabilistic models. The employed models for seismic hazard simulation include occurrence, magnitude, rupture area, rupture location, and intensity. The employed models for evaluating the building portfolio risk include the building response, damage to the structural and non-structural components and the contents, replacement costs, building population at the time of the event, casualties and fatalities, and fatality social loss based on the value of statistical life. Further, the models for the simulation of water and electric power infrastructure systems include water station damage and power station damage and the replacement costs of the stations. The risk analysis comprises over 264,000 random variables and 394,000 probabilistic models. The analysis is conducted using Rtx, a computer program for reliability, risk, and resilience analysis. The Monte Carlo sampling reliability method is used to propagate uncertainty in the analyses. The seismic hazard analyses take into account various seismogenic source models, including area sources and fault sources, and the background seismicity within different radial distances from the city. Based on the performed analyses, by including the seismic sources within the radius of 150 km from the city, the maximum peak ground accelerations with the exceedance probabilities of 2% and 10% in 50 years are 0.18 g and 0.52 g, respectively. Moreover, the seismic risk analyses are performed for three earthquake scenarios with moment magnitudes of 6.5, 7.0, and 7.6 on the Main Zagros Reverse Fault at a distance of 72 km from the center of the city. The primary result of such analyses is the probability distributions of social and economic loss incurred by the community in each scenario of the earthquake. Specifically, the M7.6 scenario, i.e., the maximum magnitude that the source can generate, results in a total direct social and economic mean loss of 670 billion Tomans to the city buildings, which is about 4% of the replacement values of the buildings. Minor damage is imposed to water and electrical power infrastructures in the face of given earthquake scenarios. For instance, the power stations are subject to a mean economic loss of 5.5 billion Tomans in M7.6 scenario, while the total mean value of power stations is 196.7 billion Tomans. In addition, for the water stations with a mean value of 22.5 billion Tomans, the mean economic loss in the M7.6 scenario is 0.6 billion Tomans. Utilizing the outcomes of this study, the most vulnerable components and the major origins of social and economic losses are identified, which assists decision-makers for risk mitigation and disaster management strategies
  9. Keywords:
  10. Seismic Hazard Analysis ; Monte Carlo Sampling ; Probabilistic Modeling ; Reliability ; Infrastructure ; Probabilistic Seismic Structures Vulnerability ; Socioeconomic Loss ; Golpayegan

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