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Assessing the Cross-Border Impact of Climate Change Response Measures on Iran's Economics Status

Ebtekar, Kian | 2024

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 56906 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Khajehpour, Hossein; Maleki, Abbas
  7. Abstract:
  8. This research uses systems dynamics modeling to present an integrated assessment of the energy-economic damage caused by climate change in Iran under different climate scenarios. Implementing these policies will cause a change in the use of global oil, followed by a change in the outlook for oil price changes in the future. Due to the high dependence of the country's economy on fossil fuels, oil price changes affect the country's economy. In the first step of this thesis, the system dynamics method examines the prospect of oil price change in climate scenarios. Then, according to the oil supply and production, in different scenarios, the assessment of the future conditions of the oil market and the existing limitations of the oil supplier. Finally, with the help of energy-economy models, according to oil price changes, the effects of implementing reduction policies in different sectors of energy-economy are analyzed and evaluated. This research is remarkable for Iran's oil-based economy, which can identify the vulnerability to global climate laws to reduce fossil fuel consumption. By exploring various common socio-economic pathways (SSPs), this thesis offers nuanced insights into how stringent climate policies could change Iran's economic landscape. Examining the financial messages compared to the scenario of the continuation of the existing situation shows that in the scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP-2.6, this number can be up to 1.26 and 0.56 trillion dollars by 2050, respectively (an average of 119.4 and 60.28 billion dollars annually). In the SSP3-baseline and SSP5-baseline scenarios, the total by 2050 is $0.33 and $1.26 trillion, respectively (annual average of $17.14 and $66.36 billion). However, in the SSP2-4.5 scenario, which represents the wrong path in terms of damages caused by climate change, Iran could have even more economic growth than the scenario of continuing the status quo. Findings and reviews emphasize Iran's vital need for development to better manage resources and oil, economic empowerment, and investment in a low-carbon economy
  9. Keywords:
  10. Climate Change ; System Dynamic ; Oil Price ; Energy Economy Model ; Response Measure ; Cross-Border Impacts

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